[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 June 22 issued 2330 UT on 03 Jun 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 4 09:30:52 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JUNE 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 04 JUNE - 06 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jun: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 98/45
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 03-Jun was at R0 level, with
no significant flaring activity (B-class flares only). There
are currently four numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk.
AR3024 (S33W45, alpha) was responsible for most of the minor
flaring activity, and has shown some development over the past
UT day, increasing in spot count. AR3026 (N16W63, beta) and AR3027
(S17W24, beta) are the most complex regions, with the former
exhibiting decay and the latter showing some very minor growth.
AR3023 (S15W54, alpha) remains stable. Solar activity is expected
to be at R0 level over 04-06 Jun. No Earth-directed CMEs have
been observed. The solar wind speed on 03-Jun continued a downward
trend at near background levels, and is currently at 300 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 4 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +2
to -4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain at near
background levels over 04-05 Jun, with a minor shock in the solar
wind parameters anticipated from late 05-Jun and into early 06-Jun
due to a CME first observed on 02-Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 03 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 11000001
Darwin 1 11000001
Learmonth 1 11000001
Alice Springs 0 00000001
Gingin 0 10000001
Canberra 0 00000001
Hobart 2 31010000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00011000
Casey 3 12111101
Mawson 18 43212126
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1111 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jun 5 G0
05 Jun 16 G0, chance of G1 late in UT day
06 Jun 16 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 26 was issued on 2 June and
is current for 5-6 Jun. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in both the Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 03-Jun.
G0 conditions are expected on 04-Jun and most of 05-Jun, with
a chance of G1 conditions from late 05-Jun and into 06-Jun, due
to the anticipated arrival of a CME first observed on 02-Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jun Normal Normal Normal
05 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
06 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on 04-Jun. Moderately degraded HF conditions expected for middle
to high latitudes from late 05-Jun and into 06-Jun, due to the
anticipated arrival of a CME first observed on 02-Jun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jun 54
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 79
Jun 57
Jul 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jun 55 Near predicted monthly values
05 Jun 45 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
06 Jun 45 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 03-Jun were
mostly near monthly predicted values, with slight depressions
observed during local night hours for Northern Australian regions.
Spread-F was observed during local night hours at Perth, Brisbane,
Norfolk Island and Hobart. MUFs are expected to be mostly near
monthly predicted values over 04-06 Jun for Northern Australian
regions, to slightly depressed during local night hours. Mildly
depressed and degraded conditions are expected for Southern Australian
and Antarctic regions over 05-06 Jun due to an anticipated increase
in geomagnetic activity from a CME first observed on 02-Jun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jun
Speed: 371 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 45900 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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