[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 May 22 issued 2330 UT on 31 May 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 1 09:30:50 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 MAY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 01 JUNE - 03 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 May: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 May: 98/45
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 98/45 98/45 98/45
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 31-May was at R0 level, with
no significant flaring activity (B-class flares only). AR3025
(N28W73, beta) remains the most complex region, and will soon
rotate over the western limb. There are two other numbered regions
on the solar disk, AR3023 (S15W14, alpha) and AR3024 (S33W07,
alpha), which are both stable. A small sunspot group started
developing from 31/0200UT at N12W10, which has shown growth,
but is not yet numbered. Solar activity is expected to be at
R0 level on 01-03 Jun. Several CMEs were observed, but none are
considered to be geoeffective. The solar wind speed on 31-May
remains elevated with a downward trend, decreasing from around
550 km/s to the current speed of near 500 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT, and
the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +3 to -5 nT. The
solar wind speed is expected to continue a downward trend over
01-03 Jun, although it is possible that a slight increase may
be observed due to a possible weak CME impact on 01-Jun, from
a CME first observed on 28-May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 May: G0
Estimated Indices 31 May : A K
Australian Region 8 32223221
Darwin 5 22122121
Learmonth 9 32223222
Alice Springs 6 22122221
Gingin 9 32123231
Canberra 7 32222221
Hobart 10 32333221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 May :
Macquarie Island 19 32445331
Casey 11 33222242
Mawson 51 55333675
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 May : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 3321 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jun 8 G0
02 Jun 5 G0
03 Jun 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 31-May. G0 to G2 levels were observed in the
Antarctic region. G0 conditions are expected over 01-03 Jun.
There is a slight chance of a mild increase in geomagnetic activity
on 01-Jun due to a possible weak impact from a CME first observed
on 28-May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Jun Normal Normal Normal
03 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for 01-03 Jun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 May 64
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 77
May 51
Jun 54
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jun 65 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jun 65 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jun 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 31-May were
mostly near monthly predicted values. Spread-F was observed at
Hobart between 0900-2200UT. MUFs are expected to be mostly near
monthly predicted values during 01-03 Jun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 May
Speed: 556 km/sec Density: 8.6 p/cc Temp: 560000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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