[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 July 22 issued 2330 UT on 29 Jul 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 30 09:30:50 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JULY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JULY - 01 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jul: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jul 31 Jul 01 Aug
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 93/38 93/38 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 29-Jul was at the R0 level,
with no significant flaring. There are currently three numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3068 (S15E49, beta) has
shown growth. All other sunspot regions are either stable or
in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level over
30-Jul to 01-Aug. A filament eruption was observed at 29/1209UT
in SDO and H-alpha imagery on the west limb. A narrow westward
CME was first observed at 29/1309UT in LASCO imagery but is not
considered to be geoeffective. A faint southwest CME was observed
from 29/0048 but is not considered geoeffective. No other CMEs
were observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 29-Jul ranged from
323 to 390 km/s, and is currently near 345 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -4 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain mostly near background levels on 30-Jul
to 01-Aug. There is a possibility of a mild increase in the solar
wind on 31-Jul due to the effects of high speed wind streams
from a small coronal holes in the northern hemisphere.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 29 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11000220
Darwin 3 11110211
Learmonth 2 11010220
Alice Springs 3 12100220
Gingin 3 10000320
Canberra 1 00000220
Hobart 1 00000220
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000100
Casey 7 33201221
Mawson 10 32100144
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 2231 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jul 10 G0
31 Jul 12 G0
01 Aug 12 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 29-Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 30-Jul to 01-Aug, with mildly disturbed conditions
possible from 31-Jul due to the effects of coronal hole high
speed wind streams.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to mildly degraded HF conditions are expected
on 30-Jul to 01-Aug.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jul 42
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 60
Jul 65
Aug 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jul 45 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
31 Jul 50 Near predicted monthly values
01 Aug 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 29-Jul were
mostly near monthly values to 25% depressed in the Australian
region. The cause of this mild depression is unknown. Spread-F
was observed in Darwin, Townsville, Brisbane and Hobart during
local night hours. Sporadic E was observed at Cocos Islands and
Learmonth. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% depressed over 30-Jul to 01-Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jul
Speed: 394 km/sec Density: 7.0 p/cc Temp: 59100 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
Level 2 Bice Building, Lot Fourteen Precinct, North Terrace, Adelaide SA 5000
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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