[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 July 22 issued 2330 UT on 23 Jul 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 24 09:30:59 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JULY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JULY - 26 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jul: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jul 25 Jul 26 Jul
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 108/58 108/58 106/55
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 23-Jul was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares. There are currently six numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3060 (N11W43, alpha) and
AR3065 (S20W08, beta) have shown spot development. AR3063 (N12W22,
alpha) is unstable. All other sunspot regions are stable or in
decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level, with
a chance of R1 over 24-26 Jul. A halo CME was observed in LASCO
and STEREO-A from 23/1912UT. A filament eruption was observed
in the southwest quadrant visible in H-alpha and SDO imagery
from 23/1849UT. Preliminary analysis indicates the possibility
of a southwest CME associated with the filament eruption, with
a farside event occurring simultaneously, producing the halo
CME. Further analysis will be conducted when more coronagraph
imagery becomes available, but early indications are of a farside
event. The solar wind speed on 23-Jul was elevated due to coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects combined with a CME impact,
and ranged from 509-685 km/s and is currently near 550 km/s with
a declining trend. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 17 nT, occurring when a moderate shock was observed
in the solar wind at 23/0230. The north-south IMF component (Bz)
range was +13 to -13 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to
remain elevated over 24-26 Jul, returning to background levels
by the end of the period as the combined effects of a coronal
hole high speed wind stream and a CME impact on UT day 23-Jul
abate.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jul: G1
Estimated Indices 23 Jul : A K
Australian Region 12 44323012
Darwin 10 44312011
Learmonth 17 55323012
Alice Springs 12 44323012
Gingin 9 33223022
Canberra 12 44224011
Hobart 12 34324021
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jul :
Macquarie Island 28 35456011
Casey 12 44322122
Mawson 50 67542136
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jul :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 15 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 57 (Unsettled)
Canberra 42 (Unsettled)
Hobart 54 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11 4222 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jul 15 G0
25 Jul 9 G0
26 Jul 7 G0
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 34 was issued on 20 July and
is current for 22-24 Jul. Mostly G0 conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 23-Jul, with Learmonth experiencing
G1 conditions early in the UT day, due to the combined effects
of a coronal hole high speed wind stream and CME impact. G0 to
G2 conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with an
isolated period of G3 in Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected over 24-26 Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on 24-26 Jul.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jul 78
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 60
Jul 65
Aug 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values
25 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
26 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 23-Jul were
near monthly predicted values. Spread-F was observed at Hobart
during local night hours. Periods of sporadic E were observed
at Cocos Islands. MUFs are generally expected to be near monthly
predicted values over 24-26 Jul.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jul
Speed: 528 km/sec Density: 9.1 p/cc Temp: 343000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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