[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 July 22 issued 2330 UT on 01 Jul 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 2 09:30:47 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JULY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JULY - 04 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jul: 98/45
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jul 03 Jul 04 Jul
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 102/50 108/58
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 01-Jul was at the R0 level,
with no significant flaring activity. There are currently five
spotted sunspot regions on the solar disk, with two new tiny
spots appearing in the solar south-east quadrant, and AR3042
(N08W59) appears to have decayed and is now spotless. Region
AR3040 (S14W59) appears to show some growth in its trailer spots
as it approaches the west limb. None of these regions are significant
and all regions currently exhibit a low flare probability and
have been relatively quiet. Solar activity is expected to be
at the R0 level over 02-04 Jul. In US GONG imagery a solar filament
located at N30E20, lifted off the solar disk at around 01/2000UT.
No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed, with faint narrow
westward CME activity visible in LASCO C2 imagery, which did
not seem to be associated with any on disk activity. An isolated
coronal hole is visible in SDO imagery approaching the solar
central meridian in the north-east solar quadrant. The solar
wind speed on 01-Jul ranged between 323 to 366 km/s, The peak
total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10
nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -5
nT. The total field strength gradually increased during the UT
day, with some southward fluctuations in the Bz component after
01/2100UT. The solar wind speed is expected to mostly remain
at near background levels over 02-04 Jul, with a chance for solar
wind parameters to become enhanced on 03-Jul due to the possible
arrival of two recent CMEs.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 01 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 00000012
Darwin 2 11100012
Learmonth 3 01010013
Alice Springs 1 00000012
Gingin 3 10000023
Canberra 1 -0000012
Hobart 0 00000002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000001
Casey 5 11110114
Mawson 14 31001136
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1112 2121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jul 5 G0
03 Jul 16 G0, chance of G1
04 Jul 10 GO
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in both the
Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 01-Jul. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are mostly expected in the Australian region over
02-04 Jul. There is a chance for G1 conditions on 03-Jul due
to the possible arrival of two recent CMEs.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jul Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal
03 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 02-04 Jul, with a chance of degraded conditions for middle
to high latitudes on 03-Jul due to the possible arrival of recent
CMEs.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jul 43
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15-25% during local day.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 60
Jul 65
Aug 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jul 45 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jul 45 Near predicted monthly values
04 Jul 45 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 01-Jul were
variable with MUFs near monthly predicted values to up to 25%
depressed at times. Spread F was observed during local night
hours, implying degraded overnight HF communications conditions.
MUFs are generally expected to be near predicted monthly values,
with degraded conditions possible 03-04 Jul in association with
the chance of an increase in geomagnetic activity induced from
recent CMEs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jun
Speed: 393 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 63900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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