[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 January 22 issued 2331 UT on 29 Jan 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 30 10:31:07 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JANUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JANUARY - 01 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jan: 125/78
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jan 31 Jan 01 Feb
Activity Moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 128/81 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 29 January. Region
2936 produced all the flare activity with the largest flare being
a C7.3 flare at 29/1655UT. An M flare from region 2936 is in
progress, will be included in tomorrow's report. There are currently
four numbered regions on the visible disc. Region 2936 remains
the largest and most complex, showed further increase in area
and magnetic complexity. All other regions are either stable
of declining. Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate
on 30 January-1 February, with M-class flares most likely from
region 2936. There were no Earth directed CMEs seen in the available
images. On UT day 29 January, the solar wind speed increased
from 440 to 540 km/s as the Earth entered a coronal hole high
speed wind stream. The total IMF(Bt) range was 1-9 nT and the
north-south IMF (Bz) range was -7/+5 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain mildly elevated for the next two UT days,30-31
January due to coronal hole effects and possible mild CME impacts
before decreasing to background levels on 1 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jan: Quiet to unsettled
with isolated active periods.
Estimated Indices 29 Jan : A K
Australian Region 7 22233011
Cocos Island 5 22123010
Darwin 6 32222011
Townsville 7 22233111
Learmonth 9 32233112
Alice Springs 6 22233001
Gingin 9 32234002
Canberra 10 23334001
Hobart 12 23344011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jan :
Macquarie Island 22 23456000
Casey 17 45433111
Mawson 21 45335113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 1221 1213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jan 12 Quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.
31 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Feb 7 Mostly quiet.
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods on UT day 29
January. Storm levels were observed in Antarctica. The observed
mildly disturbed conditions were due to the coronal hole effects.
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 30-31 January with
possible active periods due to coronal hole effects and possible
mild CME impacts. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 1 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal
01 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions are expected on 30 January-1 February.
Possible shortwave fadeouts on daylight HF circuits over the
next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jan 65
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 34
Jan 36
Feb 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jan 55 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
31 Jan 55 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
01 Feb 55 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 9 was issued on 28
January and is current for 29-30 Jan. Australian regional maximum
usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted monthly to enhanced
values on 29 January. Mostly normal HF conditions expected for
the next three days with a strengthening ionosphere due to extra
ionising solar radiation from region 2936. MUFs generally above
predicted monthly values by 10-25%. Possible shortwave fadeouts
on daylight HF circuits over the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jan
Speed: 449 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 138000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list