[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 January 22 issued 2331 UT on 26 Jan 2022
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 27 10:31:47 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JANUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JANUARY - 29 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jan: Low
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
C9.0 25/2349UT probable lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jan: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jan 28 Jan 29 Jan
Activity Low Low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 26 January with a few
C-class flares. The strongest C7.2 occurred at 26/0732 UT. There
are five numbered regions on the visible disc. Solar activity
is expected to be low on 27-29 January, with a chance of more
C-class flares and a remote chance of M-class flare. There were
no Earth directed coronal mass ejections seen in the available
images. The 25 January CME could cause a glancing blow at earth
on early UT day 29 January. During the last 24 hours, the solar
wind speed was at moderately elevated levels, in the range of
420km/s to 520 km/s. The mildly disturbed solar wind speed was
caused by coronal hole effects. The peak total IMF range was
5 nT to 8 nT. The north-south IMF (Bz) range was +/-5 nT. The
solar wind is expected to begin to settle today, 27 January,
as the current coronal hole effect wanes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 26 Jan : A K
Australian Region 7 22232212
Cocos Island 4 21221111
Darwin 7 22232212
Townsville 7 22232212
Learmonth 9 22232223
Alice Springs 7 22232212
Gingin 8 21232223
Canberra 7 22232112
Hobart 8 22332212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jan :
Macquarie Island 12 22144321
Casey 23 45542223
Mawson 23 23343336
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13 1223 3
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Jan 5 Quiet
29 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet to unsettled on UT day 26 January. Quiet to minor storm
levels were observed in Antarctica. The observed mildly disturbed
conditions were due to the coronal hole effects. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on 27 January, as the coronal hole effects
begin to wane. Isolated active periods are possible today. Mostly
quiet conditions are expected on 28 January. Mild disturbances
are expected on 29 January due to another coronal hole reaching
geoeffective location combined with the glancing blow from the
25 January CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jan Fair Fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal
29 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected during 27-29
January. Shortwave fadeouts are possible over the next three
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jan 72
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 34
Jan 36
Feb 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jan 60 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Jan 60 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
29 Jan 60 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 8 was issued on 26
January and is current for 26-28 Jan. Australian regional maximum
usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted monthly to enhanced
values on 26 January due to high levels of solar ionising flux.
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly to enhanced
values on 27-29 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jan
Speed: 373 km/sec Density: 12.5 p/cc Temp: 132000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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