[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 January 22 issued 2338 UT on 21 Jan 2022

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 22 10:38:15 EST 2022 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JANUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JANUARY - 24 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jan:  97/44


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Jan             23 Jan             24 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              93/38              89/33

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 21 January. There 
are six numbered regions on the visible disk, two of them spot 
groups. Regions 2933 (S17W61) and 2934 (S25E56) are stable and 
quiet with alpha magnetic configuration. Solar activity is expected 
to be very low to low on 22-24 January with a small chance of 
an isolated M-class flare. A filament erupted near region 2934 
resulting in an asymmetric halo event in STEREO A images. It 
is possible there will be an impact from this CME on 24 January. 
The solar wind speed range was 399-503 km/s, peaking after a 
weak shock occurred at 1307 UT. The peak total IMF was 8 nT and 
the north-south IMF (Bz) range was +/-5 nT, mostly southward 
since the shock. A number of likely CME arrivals along with coronal 
hole effects are expected to produce minor to moderately enhanced 
solar wind conditions 22-24 January.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 21 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   11113222
      Cocos Island         6   11113222
      Darwin               5   11113221
      Townsville           6   11113222
      Learmonth            6   00113322
      Alice Springs        5   10113221
      Gingin               8   11113323
      Canberra             4   10112222
      Hobart               5   11112222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     3   10111221
      Casey               18   44422234
      Mawson              21   21223446

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   3000 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Jan    12    Quiet to Active
23 Jan    12    Quiet to Active
24 Jan    15    Quiet to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
quiet to unsettled on UT day 21 January. Quiet to storm levels 
were observed in Antarctica. The possible arrival of a number 
of CMEs along with coronal hole effects is likely to cause disturbances 
22-24 January. Quiet to active conditions are expected with isolated 
minor storm periods possible.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0755UT 20/01, Ended at 1515UT 20/01
 and, 100MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0820UT 20/01, Ended at 1045UT 20/01

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected during 22-24 
January.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Jan    53

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed 15-25% 04-07 UT.
      Near predicted monthly values at other times.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      34
Jan      36
Feb      39

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Jan    45    Near predicted monthly values
23 Jan    40    Near predicted monthly values
24 Jan    40    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Australian regional maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) 
were near predicted monthly values to enhanced on 21 January. 
Sporadic E observed at Hobart most hours between 04-20 UT and 
Canberra 21-23 UT. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted 
monthly values on 22-24 January.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.9E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jan
Speed: 474 km/sec  Density:    5.3 p/cc  Temp:   220000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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