[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 January 22 issued 2338 UT on 16 Jan 2022
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 17 10:38:21 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JANUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JANUARY - 19 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jan: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 16 Jan. There are ten
numbered regions on the visible disc with 2929 (N08W27) and 2930
(N21W21) being the two largest. Both produced C-class flares,
but the former has reduced in size. A coronal mass ejection (CME)
observed on 16 Jan heading southeast is not likely to be geoeffective.
A later one to the northwest is being analysed. Region 2916 (S17)
which previously produced M-flare(s) is expected to return during
17-18 Jan. Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate for
17-19 Jan. The solar wind speed remains elevated around 600 km/s
as coronal hole effects persist. However, the IMF disturbance
has diminished, with total strength (Bt) peaking for 16 Jan at
8 nT and north-south (Bz) ranging +6/-6 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to commence a gradual decline from 17 Jan, unless
there is further disturbance from a 14 Jan CME which could arrive
early that day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Jan : A K
Australian Region 11 32223233
Cocos Island 7 32222221
Darwin 9 32123223
Townsville 12 32123234
Learmonth 11 32223233
Alice Springs 11 32223233
Gingin 11 32223233
Canberra 11 32223233
Hobart 11 32223233
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jan :
Macquarie Island 24 43246332
Casey 27 45544333
Mawson 57 45443485
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 46 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 17 4322 3344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jan 20 Unsettled to minor storm
18 Jan 12 Quiet to Active
19 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
mostly quiet to unsettled on UT day 16 Jan. Storm conditions
were observed in Antarctica. Predominately unsettled conditions
are expected for 17 Jan, with active periods possible due to
continuing elevated solar wind speeds. There is a small chance
of minor storm periods due to a weak coronal mass ejection from
14 Jan. Failing that, mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected for 18-19 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
18 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
19 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions were observed early on UT day
16 Jan for all latitudes. Degraded conditions are also possible
in the mid and high latitudes during 17-18 Jan.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jan 29
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 34
Jan 36
Feb 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jan 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
18 Jan 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
19 Jan 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian regional maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
were variable during local daytime (00-08 UT, 16 Jan) with some
sites depressed by up to 35%. Degraded conditions were also observed
subsequently during local nighttime in the north. Periods of
depressed MUFs are expected on UT day 17 Jan due to continued
elevated solar wind and on 18 Jan due to possible CME effects,
with mostly normal conditions expected by 19 Jan.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jan
Speed: 473 km/sec Density: 13.3 p/cc Temp: 260000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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