[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 January 22 issued 2341 UT on 14 Jan 2022
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 15 10:41:32 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JANUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JANUARY - 17 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jan: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.8 0204UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jan: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 108/58
COMMENT: Solar activity was low to moderate on UT day 14 January,
with a weak M-class flare and four C-class flares. The M-class
flare was from the Northeast limb. There are currently eight
numbered regions on the visible disc. Solar activity is expected
to be low to moderate on 15-17 January, with a chance of more
C-class flares and remote chance of a M-class flare. A long disappearing
filament was observed to lift off from the southwest quadrant
(~S35W35) in the GONG H-Alpha and SDO imagery starting at approximately
14/1300 UTC. A subsequent CME was observed in the LASCO C2 imagery
starting at 14/1325 UT. Our initial model run indicates that
this CME might cause a glancing blow at earth late on UT day
16 January. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the
available images. During the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed
was in the range of 350-420 km/s. The total IMF was mostly steady
near 8 nT till 14/1300 and from thereon increased gradually to
peak at 16 nT at 14/2100. The north-south IMF (Bz) range was
+7/-16 nT. The IMF Bz was predominantly southward between 14/1400
UT and 14/2100 UT. The solar wind is expected to elevate today
in response to the effects from a Southern coronal hole with
extensions into the equatorial region soon reaching geoeffective
location on the solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jan: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 14 Jan : A K
Australian Region 13 11222245
Cocos Island 8 -1122233
Darwin 9 10222234
Townsville 13 11223235
Learmonth 16 11133345
Alice Springs 11 10222235
Gingin 13 10122345
Canberra 13 01222245
Hobart 15 01223345
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jan :
Macquarie Island 17 01102455
Casey 23 24632234
Mawson 22 12212465
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Hobart 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0000 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jan 20 Active
16 Jan 20 Active
17 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 13 January and
is current for 15-16 Jan. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region were quiet to active on 14 January UT. Quiet to storm
conditions were observed in Antarctica. This was in response
to IMF Bz staying southward for prolonged period. Unsettled to
active conditions with a chance of minor storms on UT day 15
and 16 January due to arrival of the coronal hole effects. Mostly
unsettled conditions are expected for UT day 17 January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jan Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
16 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
17 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions are possible in the mid and
high latitudes on UT day 15 and 16 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jan 68
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 34
Jan 36
Feb 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jan 60 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Jan 35 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jan 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 3 was issued on 14
January and is current for 14-16 Jan. Mostly near predicted to
mildly enhanced MUFs were observed in the Australian region on
14 January. Sporadic E and spread F observed at some Australian
sites. Mostly near predicted MUFs are expected on 15 to 17 January.
HF propagation conditions are expected to be slightly degraded
on UT day 16 January due to the aftermath of the forecasted disturbed
conditions. Short-wave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jan
Speed: 445 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 129000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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