[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 January 22 issued 2331 UT on 08 Jan 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 9 10:31:04 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 JANUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JANUARY - 11 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jan: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on 8-Jan UT. There are currently
two numbered regions on the visible disk: 2924 (S32W01) and 2925
(S35E33). The former has increased in size. Regions on the east
limb in the north and south hemispheres are now visible but not
yet numbered. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. The solar
wind speed has increased under the influence of a coronal hole
to a peak of 413 km/s. The north-south (Bz) component of the
IMF dipped briefly to -17 nT and total IMF (Bt) reached 20 nT.
Solar activity is expected to be low for 9-11 Jan. The solar
wind is expected to become less disturbed as the coronal hole
effects wane over the next two days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jan: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 08 Jan : A K
Australian Region 8 00221243
Cocos Island 5 00110242
Darwin 8 11121243
Townsville 9 11222243
Learmonth 11 00122353
Alice Springs - --------
Gingin 8 00221243
Canberra 8 00222243
Hobart 7 00211243
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Jan :
Macquarie Island 5 00102133
Casey 14 33332243
Mawson 16 11112355
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs NA
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
10 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for the Australian region reached
active levels late on 8-Jan due to solar wind disturbance from
a coronal hole. Some minor storm periods were observed in Antarctica.
Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 9-Jan, with conditions
becoming quieter during 10-11 Jan as coronal hole effects wane.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: On 8-Jan, HF conditions were mostly normal, with some
depressed periods at low latitudes. Depressed MUFs are possible
for high latitudes during 9-10 Jan due to likely elevated geomagnetic
activity. Mostly normal conditions are expected for 11-Jan.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jan 27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 34
Jan 36
Feb 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jan 25 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jan 25 Near predicted monthly values
11 Jan 25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 2 was issued on 7
January and is current for 8-10 Jan. Depressed MUFs in the northern
Australian region were observed on 8-Jan. Mostly normal conditions
are expected for 9-11 Jan with some depressed Australian/NZ MUFs
possible and disturbed ionospheric support likely in Antarctic
regions due to a recent increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jan
Speed: 317 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 40700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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