[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 February 22 issued 2331 UT on 26 Feb 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 27 10:31:07 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 FEBRUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 FEBRUARY - 01 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Feb: 97/44
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Feb 28 Feb 01 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 97/44 98/45 102/50
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 26 Feb, with a
few B-class flares. Most of the flaring were from the southeast
limb. Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next
three UT days, 27-29 Feb, with a chance of C-class flares. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available imagery. On
UT day 26 Feb, the solar wind speed was in the range of 360 km/s
to 420 km/s and on a gradual declining trend. The interplanetary
magnetic field (IMF) was mostly steady near 4 nT and the IMF
north-south component (Bz) ranged between +/-3 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to enhance to moderate levels today, UT
day 27 Feb, due to small patchy equatorial coronal holes reaching
geoeffective location on the solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Feb : A K
Australian Region 1 11100001
Darwin 1 21000001
Townsville 2 21100001
Learmonth 2 20100002
Alice Springs 0 10000001
Gingin 1 11100011
Canberra 7 0-322213
Hobart 1 01100001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Feb :
Macquarie Island 0 01100000
Casey 8 34320110
Mawson 3 22210010
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 1133 2001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Feb 12 Unsettled
28 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
mostly quiet on UT day 26 Feb. Quiet to unsettled levels were
observed in Antarctica. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to
reach unsettled levels with a chance of active periods today,
UT day 27 Feb, due to weak coronal hole effects. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected to continue on UT day 28 Feb and 01 Mar
as the coronal hole effects persist.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF condition expected over the next three
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Feb 54
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 46
Feb 38
Mar 41
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Feb 55 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Feb 55 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
01 Mar 55 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian regional maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
were near the predicted monthly to mildly enhanced values on
26 Feb. Similar MUF conditions are expected on 27 Feb to 01 Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Feb
Speed: 437 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 137000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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