[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 February 22 issued 2331 UT on 15 Feb 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 16 10:31:04 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 FEBRUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 FEBRUARY - 18 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Feb: Moderate
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Feb: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 108/58
COMMENT: Solar activity was low to moderate on UT day 15 February,
with one low M-class flare and few C-class flares. The M-class
flare was from solar region AR2941, currently at N25W80. This
region will soon rotate to the far-side of the sun. Further isolated
low level M class flare is possible from this region, today (UT
day 16 February). Another region AR2943 (Beta classification),
currently at S18W43, has produced few C-class flares in the last
24 hours and is appear to be growing. Low to moderate solar activity
is expected for the next three days (16-18 February), with a
chance of C-class flares and remote chance of M-class flares.
There were no Earth directed CMEs observed in the available satellite
imagery. On UT day 15 February, the solar wind speed ranged from
400 to 420 km/sec, with an overall declining trend. The total
(Bt) interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) ranged between 4 nT
and 6 nT, and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) ranged
between 4/-2 nT. The solar wind is expected to be mostly near
its nominal levels from today (UT day 16 Feb).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Feb : A K
Australian Region 2 21101101
Darwin 3 21101102
Townsville 3 21111111
Learmonth 3 21101102
Alice Springs 2 20101101
Gingin 2 21101101
Canberra 2 13000000
Hobart 2 21101200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Feb :
Macquarie Island 2 12001200
Casey 8 33322111
Mawson 11 43312321
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2222 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Feb 5 Quiet
17 Feb 5 Quiet
18 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
mostly at quiet levels on UT day 15 February. Quiet to unsettled
periods were observed in the Antarctic region. The 3-day (16-18
February) outlook is for the geomagnetic activity to be mostly
quiet, with a chance of isolated unsettled periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal HF condition expected over the next few days.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Feb 69
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 46
Feb 38
Mar 41
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Feb 70 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
17 Feb 70 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
18 Feb 70 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Frequencies of ionospheric support in the Australian
region were near monthly predicted to mildly enhanced levels
on UT day 15 February. This was in response to high levels of
solar ionising flux. Ionospheric frequencies of support are expected
to be near to 15% above predicted monthly values. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible for the next 3-days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Feb
Speed: 471 km/sec Density: 7.7 p/cc Temp: 190000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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