[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 February 22 issued 2331 UT on 09 Feb 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 10 10:31:12 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 FEBRUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 FEBRUARY - 12 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Feb: 126/79
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Feb 11 Feb 12 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 118/70 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 9-Feb, with C-class
flares from regions 2939 (S20W55) and 2941 (N22W02). A westward
CME first observed in STEREO imagery at 09/1938 looks unlikely
to be geoeffective, but needs further analysis. There are four
numbered regions on the disc. Solar activity is expected to be
low to moderate for 10-12 Feb. The solar wind speed declined
to around 380 km/s before a weak shock at around 09/2010 likely
due to the 6-Feb CME arrival. It subsequently peaked around 445
km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength
before the shock was was 4 nT, and 8 nT afterwards. The north-south
IMF (Bz) range was -2 nT to +4 nT before the shock and -4 nT
to +3 nT afterwards. The solar wind is expected to be disturbed
during 10-12 Feb due to CME and anticipated coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Feb : A K
Australian Region 1 10000012
Darwin 2 10010022
Townsville 3 10010013
Learmonth 1 10000012
Alice Springs 1 00000012
Gingin 1 10000012
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 10000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Feb :
Macquarie Island 0 00000001
Casey 9 23332022
Mawson 9 13111134
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 1011 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Feb 25 Active to Minor Storm
11 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
12 Feb 20 Active to Minor Storm
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 7 February and
is current for 9-10 Feb. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region were mostly quiet on UT day 9-Feb. Conditions were mostly
quiet to unsettled at southern high latitudes. Global geomagnetic
conditions are expected to reach active to minor storm levels
during the next 3 days due to the recent CME arrival and anticipated
coronal hole effects from late 12-Feb.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
12 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions are possible during on 11-12
Feb due to expected geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Feb 69
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 46
Feb 38
Mar 41
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Feb 60 Near predicted monthly values
11 Feb 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
12 Feb 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
COMMENT: Frequencies were near predicted monthly values to enhanced
on 9-Feb. Similar conditions are expected for 10 Feb, with mild
depressions likely on 11-12 Feb due to expected geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Feb
Speed: 439 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 133000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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