[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 August 22 issued 2330 UT on 02 Aug 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 3 09:30:49 EST 2022


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 AUGUST 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 03 AUGUST - 05 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Aug:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Aug:  98/45


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Aug             04 Aug             05 Aug
Activity     R0			R0	           R0
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48              98/45              98/45

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 02-Aug was at the R0 level, 
with some C-class flaring. There is currently one numbered sunspot 
region visible on the solar disk. AR3068 (S16W10, beta) has shown 
trailer spot development over the 24 hour period. A new sunspot 
region (S16E70, alpha) has recently rotated onto the solar disk 
and is yet to be numbered. Most of the flaring activity occurred 
from beyond the southwest limb, most likely from AR3066 (S14W86) 
which has recently rotated off the solar disk. Solar activity 
is expected to be at the R0 level over 03-05 Aug. Several CMEs 
were observed, but none are considered geoeffective. A northwestern 
CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery from 02/0712UT and is considered 
to be a farside event. The solar wind speed on UT day 02-Aug 
was elevated due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects, 
and ranged from 457 to 543 km/s and is currently near 530 km/s. 
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +7 to -7 
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated over 
03-04 Aug due to a high speed solar wind stream from a south 
polar coronal hole, the solar wind speed is expected to decrease 
on 05-Aug due to waning coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Aug: G0

Estimated Indices 02 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22221122
      Darwin               5   22221121
      Learmonth            6   22221122
      Alice Springs        5   22221121
      Gingin               5   21220122
      Canberra             6   21221222
      Hobart               6   22221222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     4   12220111
      Casey               10   33331222
      Mawson              25   34342246

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              44   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            54   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              67   (Active)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   3222 2123     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Aug    14    G0
04 Aug    10    G0
05 Aug     5    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in both the 
Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 02-Aug. G0 geomagnetic 
conditions are expected over 03-05 Aug, with mildly disturbed 
conditions possible over 03-04 Aug due to the effects of a coronal 
hole high speed wind stream.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal to mildly degraded HF conditions are expected 
on 03-05 Aug.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Aug    42

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      65
Aug      67
Sep      68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Aug    45    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
04 Aug    45    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
05 Aug    50    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 02-Aug were 
mostly near predicted monthly values to 15-30% depressed at some 
Australian sites. Spread-F was observed at several Australian 
sites. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values 
to 15% depressed over 03-04 Aug and near predicted monthly values 
over 05-Aug.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Aug
Speed: 488 km/sec  Density:    5.9 p/cc  Temp:   169000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
Level 2 Bice Building, Lot Fourteen Precinct, North Terrace, Adelaide SA 5000
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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