[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 April 22 issued 2330 UT on 06 Apr 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 7 09:30:52 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 APRIL 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 07 APRIL - 09 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://www.sws.bom.gov.au
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Apr: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Apr: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Apr 08 Apr 09 Apr
Activity R0-R1 R0 R0
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 116/68 115/66 112/63
COMMENT: On UT day 6 Apr, solar activity was at R0 level, with
three low-level C-class flares. Solar activity is expected to
be at R0 level with a slight chance of R1 level 7-9 Apr. All
regions have decayed with AR2978 (S18W51, Dao/beta) the most
complex region. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in
available imagery on 6 Apr. The solar wind speed range on 6 Apr
was 369-438 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF
Bt) strength peaked at 7 nT after 6/2245 UT, possibly signaling
the arrival of the 3 Apr CME. The north-south IMF (Bz) range
was +/-4 nT. Solar wind parameters are expected to be elevated
on 7 Apr. There may be weak impacts on 8 Apr from CMEs observed
on 4 Apr. Coronal hole effects may commence late on 9 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 06 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 22110210
Darwin 3 -2110201
Townsville 5 22121211
Learmonth 5 22211310
Alice Springs 3 21110210
Gingin 4 22111220
Canberra 2 11120200
Hobart 3 12120210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Apr :
Macquarie Island 3 11121210
Casey 8 33311211
Mawson 18 53211253
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2221 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Apr 29 G0-G1
08 Apr 12 G0
09 Apr 10 G0, with possible G1 conditions late.
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 18 was issued on 5 April and
is current for 5-7 Apr. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 6 Apr. G0 to G1 levels were
observed in Antarctica. On UT day 7 Apr, G1 conditions are likely
due to coronal mass ejection effects. G1 conditions may extend
into 8 Apr, settling to G0 conditions by 9 Apr. Coronal hole
effects may commence late 9 Apr but more likely 10 Apr with possible
G1 conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Apr Fair Fair Fair-poor
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF propagation conditions possible on
7 Apr. Slight chance of shortwave fadeouts on daylight HF circuits.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Apr 89
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 64
Apr 46
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Apr 70 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
08 Apr 75 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
09 Apr 75 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 6 Apr were
enhanced, but near monthly predicted values around local dawn
at all sites. Spread F was observed at Hobart during night hours.
MUFs are expected to be similarly enhanced 7-9 Apr. There may
be some mild MUF degradations compared to current conditions
on 7 Apr after the onset of expected minor geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Apr
Speed: 437 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 130000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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