[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 September 21 issued 2331 UT on 29 Sep 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 30 09:31:13 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 SEPTEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 SEPTEMBER - 02 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Sep: 102/50


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Sep             01 Oct             02 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             105/54             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 29 September with five 
low level C flares from ARs 2880 (N29E45) and 2877 (S19W37). 
These spot regions have increased in size and magnetic complexity. 
AR 2871 (S28W68) and newly assigned AR 2881 (N17W38) have been 
stable and quiet. Solar activity is expected to be low with a 
small chance of M flares. There were no Earth directed CMEs observed 
in the available images. On UT day 29 September, the solar wind 
speed declined from a peak of 491 km/s at 0113 UT to 388 km/s. 
The peak total IMF (Bt) was 4 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) 
component range was +1/-3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected 
to be at background levels on 30 September. On 01 October, the 
solar wind is expected to become moderately disturbed in the 
first half of the UT day due to the CMEs launched on 27 and 28 
September.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 29 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11012112
      Cocos Island         1   01010111
      Darwin               4   12112112
      Townsville           4   11112112
      Learmonth            3   11012112
      Alice Springs        2   01012102
      Gingin               5   11112222
      Canberra             3   11012012
      Hobart               4   11022112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     3   00023011
      Casey               10   24322122
      Mawson              11   41322133

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9   1223 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Sep     9    Quiet to Unsettled. Chance of an Active period 
                late in the UT day.
01 Oct    25    Quiet to Minor Storm
02 Oct     9    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 31 was issued on 28 September 
and is current for 29 Sep to 1 Oct. On UT day 29 September, geomagnetic 
conditions in the Australian region were quiet. In the Antarctic 
region, quiet to active levels were observed. Mostly quiet to 
unsettled conditions are likely on 30 September although there 
is a chance of an active period late if the 28 September CME 
arrives earlier than expected. On 01 October, quiet to minor 
storm levels are expected due to the 27 and 28 September CMEs. 
On UT day 02 October, mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are 
likely.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Oct      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
02 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were normal on 29 September. 
Conditions are expected to be normal on 30 September to 01 October, 
becoming degraded late on 01 October. Degraded conditions are 
likely on 02 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Sep    31

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      14
Sep      27
Oct      30

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Sep    30    Near predicted monthly values
01 Oct    25    Near predicted monthly values with depressions 
                after local dawn
02 Oct    20    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 29 September 
were mostly near predicted monthly values with some nighttime 
enhancements. There was nighttime spread F observed at Hobart. 
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values on 30 September 
to 01 October with likely depressions after dawn on UT day 01 
October and 02 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Sep
Speed: 512 km/sec  Density:    6.4 p/cc  Temp:   191000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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