[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 September 21 issued 2330 UT on 20 Sep 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 21 09:30:57 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 SEPTEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 SEPTEMBER - 23 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Sep: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Sep 22 Sep 23 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 77/16
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 20 September.
Currently there are three numbered regions on the visible solar
disk: 2871, 2872 and 2873. Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low on 21-23 September. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph data. On 20 September the solar
wind speed range was 300 km/s to 325 km/s. The total IMF (Bt)
range was 2-6 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) component range
was +3/-4 nT. Solar wind parameters may become disturbed in the
latter part of 21 September or on 22 September with the arrival
of the 18 September CME. A mild to moderate increase in the solar
wind speed is expected for 23 September due to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Sep : A K
Australian Region 1 11000001
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 2 11100002
Townsville 1 11011001
Learmonth 1 11100000
Alice Springs 1 11000001
Gingin 0 11000000
Canberra 0 10000001
Hobart 0 10000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Sep :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 4 32210002
Mawson 11 42021134
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1000 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Sep 11 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
23 Sep 11 Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 27 was issued on 20 September
and is current for 21-22 Sep. On UT day 20 September, geomagnetic
conditions in the Australian region were quiet. In the Antarctic
region, quiet to active levels were observed. Global geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be quiet in the first half of 21 September.
A CME may arrive in the latter half of 21 September or on 22
September, causing active to minor storm conditions. An increase
in the geomagnetic activity is likely on 23 September due to
coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions were observed
on 20 September. Mostly normal conditions are expected on 21-23
September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Sep 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 14
Sep 27
Oct 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Sep 15 Near predicted monthly values
22 Sep 20 Near predicted monthly values
23 Sep 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 20 September
were mostly near predicted monthly values. Mild to moderate depressions
were observed in the Northern Australian region during local
day. MUFs in the Australian region on 21-23 September are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Sep
Speed: 322 km/sec Density: 7.0 p/cc Temp: 140000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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