[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 September 21 issued 2331 UT on 16 Sep 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 17 09:31:01 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 SEPTEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 SEPTEMBER - 19 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Sep: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Sep 18 Sep 19 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 16 September.
The visible disk of the Sun is now spotless with no active regions.
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on UT days
17-19 September. There is an unstable filament in the northeast
quadrant in H-alpha images that will continue to be monitored.
Also there was a filament eruption observed in SDO304 images
near S45E15 around 16/13UT. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.
On UT day 16 September, the solar wind speed was between 310
km/s and 380 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) peaked at 5 nT and the
north-south component (Bz) varied in the range -4/+4 nT. On UT
days 17-18 September the solar wind speed is expected to be at
slightly enhanced levels due to a northern coronal hole moving
into geoeffective position. Also on UT days 17-18 September,
the solar wind speed could be slightly elevated if the 13 September
DSF CME delivers a glancing blow at Earth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 11101101
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 1 11101001
Townsville 3 21101111
Learmonth 2 11111101
Alice Springs 2 12001001
Gingin 1 11100001
Canberra 1 01001101
Hobart 1 11001101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Sep :
Macquarie Island 0 00001100
Casey 5 23211101
Mawson 8 23201114
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1222 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Sep 15 Quiet to Unsettled with possible Active periods
18 Sep 15 Quiet to Unsettled with possible Active periods
19 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 16 September, the geomagnetic conditions in
the Australian region were at quiet levels. In the Antarctic
region, quiet to unsettled levels were observed. Geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled on UT days 17-18
September due to coronal hole effects. Some active periods are
possible on UT days 17-18 September if the 13 September DSF CME
delivers a glancing blow at Earth. Then on UT day 19 September,
mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
18 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
19 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days 17-19 September. Some mild degradations
in HF propagation conditions may occur on UT days 17-18 September
due to a possible increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Sep 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 14
Sep 27
Oct 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Sep 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
18 Sep 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
19 Sep 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 16 September
were mostly near predicted monthly values. Some moderately depressed
MUFs were observed in the Cocos Island region during the local
night. MUFs in the Australian region on UT days 17-19 September
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values. Some
mild MUF depressions may occur on UT days 17-18 September due
to a possible increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Sep
Speed: 392 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 121000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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