[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 September 21 issued 2330 UT on 14 Sep 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 15 09:30:56 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 SEPTEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 SEPTEMBER - 17 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Sep:  78/17


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Sep             16 Sep             17 Sep
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 14 September with a 
C1.1 flare at 0649 UT from region 2868. There are currently three 
numbered regions on the visible disk 2866, 2868 and 2869 that 
are all approaching the southwestern limb. Regions 2866 and 2868 
are spotted but are decaying. The other region 2869 has decayed 
to a plage. Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low 
levels on UT days 15-17 September. No Earth-directed CMEs were 
observed in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 
hours. On UT day 14 September, the solar wind speed followed 
a decreasing trend from 480 km/s down to 435 km/s. The total 
IMF (Bt) peaked at 5 nT and the north-south component (Bz) varied 
in range -4/+4 nT. Slightly enhanced solar wind speeds are expected 
on UT days 15-17 September due to weak coronal hole and CME effects. 
On UT day 17 September the solar wind speed could be slightly 
elevated if the 13 September DSF CME delivers a glancing blow 
at Earth.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 14 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11122221
      Cocos Island         3   12-11110
      Darwin               4   11121221
      Townsville           5   11122221
      Learmonth            5   21122220
      Alice Springs        5   11122221
      Gingin               4   20112221
      Canberra             4   10122121
      Hobart               4   10122221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     4   00123120
      Casey               12   33432221
      Mawson              16   42232235

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9   1132 3213     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Sep     5    Quiet
16 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled
17 Sep    15    Quiet to unsettled with possible active periods

COMMENT: On UT day 14 September, the geomagnetic conditions in 
the Australian region were at quiet levels. In the Antarctic 
region, quiet to active levels were observed with one storm period. 
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet on UT day 15 
September and then mostly quiet to unsettled on UT days 16-17 
September due to weak coronal hole and CME effects. Some active 
periods are possible on UT day 17 September if the 13 September 
DSF CME delivers a glancing blow at Earth.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days 15-17 September. Some mild degradations 
in HF propagation conditions may occur on UT day 17 September 
due to a possible increase in geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Sep    19

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      14
Sep      27
Oct      30

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values
16 Sep    15    Near predicted monthly values
17 Sep    10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 14 September 
were mostly near predicted monthly values. Some moderately depressed 
MUFs were observed over the Cocos Island region during the local 
night. MUFs in the Australian region on UT days 15-17 September 
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values. Some 
mild MUF depressions may occur on UT day 17 September due to 
a possible increase in geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.3E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Sep
Speed: 467 km/sec  Density:    6.5 p/cc  Temp:   217000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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