[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 September 21 issued 2330 UT on 11 Sep 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 12 09:30:59 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 SEPTEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 SEPTEMBER - 14 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Sep:  92/37


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Sep             13 Sep             14 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    92/37              90/34              86/29

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 11 September with a 
single C1 flare at 0519 UT from region 2868. There are currently 
five numbered regions on the visible disk. Regions 2866 and 2868 
are relatively large and magnetically complex with the potential 
to produce M-class flares. All other regions are either small 
or magnetically simple. Solar activity is expected to be at low 
levels on UT days 12-14 September with a chance of isolated M-class 
flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours. Solar wind parameters 
seem to indicate very weak CME influence late UT day 10 September; 
the total IMF (Bt) increased to 15 nT and north-south component 
(Bz)r reached briefly -10 nT at 10/2245UT. On UT day 11 September, 
the solar wind speed was near background levels, under 370 Km/s. 
The total IMF (Bt) peaked at 14 nT and the north-south component 
(Bz) range was -5/+10 nT, mostly northward. Slightly enhanced 
solar wind speeds are expected over the next two UT days, 12-13 
September due to weak coronal hole effects and possible minor 
CME effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 11 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   20211122
      Cocos Island         5   30211122
      Darwin               5   21211122
      Townsville           6   21221132
      Learmonth            7   31321122
      Alice Springs        4   20211122
      Gingin               4   30210022
      Canberra             3   20211021
      Hobart               2   20110011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     2   20111000
      Casey                7   33321011
      Mawson              10   51321111

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              7   1221 1223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Sep    12    Quiet to Unsettled with possible active periods.
13 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled
14 Sep     7    Mostly quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 11 September, the geomagnetic conditions in 
the Australian region were at quiet to unsettled levels. Minor 
storm periods were observed in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic 
conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled on UT days 12-13 
with possible active periods due to weak coronal hole and possible 
minor CME effects. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 14 
September.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 12-14 September.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Sep    35

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      14
Sep      27
Oct      30

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Sep    30    Near predicted monthly values
13 Sep    30    Near predicted monthly values
14 Sep    30    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 11 September 
were near predicted monthly values. MUFs in the Australian region 
on UT days 12-14 September are expected to be near predicted 
monthly values with a chance of SWFs.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Sep
Speed: 355 km/sec  Density:   12.7 p/cc  Temp:    39800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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