[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 September 21 issued 2330 UT on 11 Sep 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 12 09:30:59 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 SEPTEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 SEPTEMBER - 14 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Sep: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 92/37 90/34 86/29
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 11 September with a
single C1 flare at 0519 UT from region 2868. There are currently
five numbered regions on the visible disk. Regions 2866 and 2868
are relatively large and magnetically complex with the potential
to produce M-class flares. All other regions are either small
or magnetically simple. Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on UT days 12-14 September with a chance of isolated M-class
flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours. Solar wind parameters
seem to indicate very weak CME influence late UT day 10 September;
the total IMF (Bt) increased to 15 nT and north-south component
(Bz)r reached briefly -10 nT at 10/2245UT. On UT day 11 September,
the solar wind speed was near background levels, under 370 Km/s.
The total IMF (Bt) peaked at 14 nT and the north-south component
(Bz) range was -5/+10 nT, mostly northward. Slightly enhanced
solar wind speeds are expected over the next two UT days, 12-13
September due to weak coronal hole effects and possible minor
CME effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 20211122
Cocos Island 5 30211122
Darwin 5 21211122
Townsville 6 21221132
Learmonth 7 31321122
Alice Springs 4 20211122
Gingin 4 30210022
Canberra 3 20211021
Hobart 2 20110011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Sep :
Macquarie Island 2 20111000
Casey 7 33321011
Mawson 10 51321111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 7 1221 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Sep 12 Quiet to Unsettled with possible active periods.
13 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Sep 7 Mostly quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 11 September, the geomagnetic conditions in
the Australian region were at quiet to unsettled levels. Minor
storm periods were observed in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled on UT days 12-13
with possible active periods due to weak coronal hole and possible
minor CME effects. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 14
September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal
13 Sep Normal Normal Normal
14 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 12-14 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Sep 35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 14
Sep 27
Oct 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Sep 30 Near predicted monthly values
13 Sep 30 Near predicted monthly values
14 Sep 30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 11 September
were near predicted monthly values. MUFs in the Australian region
on UT days 12-14 September are expected to be near predicted
monthly values with a chance of SWFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Sep
Speed: 355 km/sec Density: 12.7 p/cc Temp: 39800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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