[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 October 21 issued 2334 UT on 29 Oct 2021
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 30 10:34:06 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 OCTOBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 OCTOBER - 01 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Oct: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.5 0243UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Oct: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Oct 31 Oct 01 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 108/58 106/55 106/55
COMMENT: On UT day 29 October, solar activity was moderate due
to a M1.5 flare produced by AR2891 at 0242 UT, followed by a
C5.9 flare at 0607 UT. AR2887 that produced the X1 flare on 28
October shows signs of decay. Currently there are 6 numbered
regions on the visible disc. Solar activity is expected to be
low to moderate on UT days 30 October to 1 November, mostly because
of the flaring potential of AR2891. There was a DSF in H-alpha
images near N22E20 around 29/13 UT. Also there was a filament
eruption in H-alpha images near N15E45 around 29/17 UT. A prominence
eruption was observed in SDO304 images on the southwest limb
around 29/18 UT. There was a CME was observed towards the southwest
in Lasco and Stereo-A images around 29/19 UT. This CME is most
likely associated with the prominence eruption just beyond the
southwest limb and is unlikely to be geoeffective. No other CMEs
were observed in the available coronagraph images. On UT day
29 October, the solar wind speed was near background levels with
a range of 285 km/s to 335 km/s. The total IMF (BT) peaked at
8 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) component range was +5/-6 nT.
The 28 October X1 flare CME is expected to arrive on UT day 30
October, elevating the solar wind speed to strong levels through
UT day 31 October. Then the solar wind speed is expected to decrease
to slightly or moderately enhanced levels on UT day 1 November
as CME effects fade.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 11100102
Cocos Island 1 11100101
Darwin 3 21100112
Townsville 4 12100113
Learmonth 3 21000212
Alice Springs 2 21000102
Gingin 2 11100202
Canberra 2 11000102
Hobart 2 11100102
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 01000001
Casey 6 23210212
Mawson 6 11100134
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0000 0201
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Oct 50 Quiet to major storm levels with a chance of
a severe storm
31 Oct 45 Active to major storm levels
01 Nov 15 Quiet to active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 34 was issued on 29 October
and is current for 30-31 Oct. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region were mostly quiet on UT day 29 October. In the Antarctic
region, quiet to unsettled conditions were observed with one
active period. Mostly quiet conditions are expected initially
on UT day 30 October, before the arrival of the 28 October CME
associated with the X1 flare. When the CME arrives, global geomagnetic
activity is expected to increase to major storm levels with a
chance of a severe storm. Active to major storm levels are expected
on UT day 31 October, followed by quiet to active conditions
on UT day 1 November as CME effects fade. Auroras may be visible
from Tasmania, the coastline of Victoria and the southwest coast
of Western Australia on the local nights of 30 October and maybe
31 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 29 10 2021 0430UT and is in progress
and, 100MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 29 10 2021 0325UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Oct Poor Poor Poor(PCA)
31 Oct Fair Fair-poor Poor
01 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are expected to be mildly
to moderately degraded on UT days 30 October to 1 November, due
to the predicted increase in geomagnetic activity. Shortwave
fadeouts may happen due to possible M-class flares.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Oct 37
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 24
Oct 29
Nov 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Oct 15 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
31 Oct 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
01 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on 28
October and is current for 29-31 Oct. SWS Preliminary HF Communications
Warning 28 was issued on 29 October and is current for 30-31
Oct. MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 29 October were
mostly near predicted monthly values. Mild enhancements were
observed in the Cocos Island region during the local night. Some
moderate enhancements were observed in the the Niue Island region
during the local day. Mild to moderate MUF depressions are likely
on UT days 30 October to 1 November, due to the predicted increase
in geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts may happen due to
possible M-class flares.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.8E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Oct
Speed: 305 km/sec Density: 9.2 p/cc Temp: 12800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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