[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 October 21 issued 2331 UT on 19 Oct 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 20 10:31:06 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 OCTOBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 OCTOBER - 22 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Oct: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 76/14 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 19 October. There
is currently one numbered region on the visible disk of the Sun
AR2886 (S19E52). Very low solar activity is expected for the
next three UT days 20-22 October. There was a DSF observed in
H-alpha images near N37W20 around 19/1844 UT. No Earth directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT
day 19 October, the the solar wind speed was between 340 km/s
and 420 km/s. The total IMF (BT) peaked at 10 nT and the north-south
IMF (Bz) component range was +8/-7 nT. The solar wind speed is
expected to remain slightly enhanced on UT days 20-21 October,
due to the high speed streams from a small northern coronal hole
and a large extension of a southern polar coronal hole. Then
on UT day 22 October the solar wind speed is expected to return
to background levels as coronal hole effects fade.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 19 Oct : A K
Australian Region 11 22122442
Darwin 10 22122432
Townsville 10 22222432
Learmonth 14 22122542
Alice Springs 11 22122442
Gingin 13 21122542
Canberra 9 12122432
Hobart 11 12221442
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Oct :
Macquarie Island 9 11232421
Casey 16 44421332
Mawson 17 35223333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 3321 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Oct 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled with possible isolated
active periods
21 Oct 11 Mostly quiet to unsettled with possible isolated
active periods
22 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region
were quiet to active with two minor storm periods on UT day 19
October. In the Antarctic region, quiet to minor storm levels
were observed. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly
quiet to unsettled with possible isolated active periods on UT
days 20-21 October due to coronal hole effects. Then quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected on UT day 22 October as coronal
hole effects fade.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
21 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
22 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 20-22 October. Some mild to moderate degradations
in HF propagation conditions are possible on UT days 20-21 October
due to the increase in geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Oct -19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 24
Oct 29
Nov 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Oct 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
21 Oct 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
22 Oct 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 19 October were
mostly near predicted monthly values, with some moderate depressions
in the northern Australian region and the Southern Australian
region. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values on UT days 20-22 October. Some mild to moderate MUF depressions
are possible on UT days 20-21 October due to the increase in
geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Oct
Speed: 361 km/sec Density: 13.7 p/cc Temp: 33200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list