[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 October 21 issued 2331 UT on 17 Oct 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 18 10:31:16 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 OCTOBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 OCTOBER - 20 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Oct: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Oct 19 Oct 20 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 17 October. The
solar disk is currently spotless. Very low solar activity is
expected for the next three UT days 18-20 October. SDO images
observed a filament eruption in the NW quadrant(N35W15) around
17/0719UT. A very weak(faint) CME observed in STEREO imagery
starting 17/0936UT. This CME is very difficult to model but may
have a weak Earth directed component. No other CMEs other were
observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 17 October,
the the solar wind speed was slightly enhanced varying between
340 Km/s and 420 km/s. The total IMF (BT) range was 6 to 10 nT
and the north-south IMF (Bz) component range was +9/-8 nT with
a sustained southward orientation since 17/0820UT. Solar wind
parameters are expected to become disturbed from late 18 October
with the arrival of high speed stream from two coronal holes
in the northern and southern hemispheres.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Oct : A K
Australian Region 7 12222232
Darwin 6 22221222
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 8 12222233
Alice Springs 6 12222222
Gingin 7 02222232
Hobart 7 12222232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Oct :
Macquarie Island 12 11144332
Casey 15 44322233
Mawson 26 12223366
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 3111 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
19 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
20 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region
were quiet to unsettled on UT day 17 October. Unsettled levels
were in response to a sustained Bz southward orientation. Storm
levels were observed in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic conditions
are expected to increase to active levels with a slight chance
of minor storm levels from late 18 October due to coronal hole
effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
19 Oct Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
20 Oct Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Mostly Normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over the next two UT days, 18-20 October. Mildly degraded HF
propagation conditions may be observed on 19-20 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Oct 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 24
Oct 29
Nov 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Oct 15 Near predicted monthly values
19 Oct 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
20 Oct 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 17 October showed
a slight recovery. MUFs were near predicted monthly values with
slight depressions observed in the southern Australian region.
MUFs are likely to be mostly near predicted monthly values on
UT days 18-20 October. Mildly depressed MUFs may be observed
in response to the expected increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Oct
Speed: 391 km/sec Density: 8.5 p/cc Temp: 77600 K Bz: 7 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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