[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 October 21 issued 2331 UT on 14 Oct 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 15 10:31:15 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 OCTOBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 OCTOBER - 17 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Oct: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Oct 16 Oct 17 Oct
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 80/20 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 14 October, with a
few C-class and B-class flares. There are currently three numbered
regions with sunspots on the visible solar disk. Very low to
low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days 15-17
October with a chance of more C-class flares. No Earth directed
CMEs were observed in the available recent coronagraph data.
The 12 October CME may cause a glancing blow on Earth today,
UT day 15 October. On UT day 14 October, the solar wind speed
was mostly near background to mildly elevated levels, varying
in the range of 370km/s to 400 km/s. The total IMF (BT) range
was 4 to 6 nT, and the north-south IMF (Bz) component range was
+3/-4 nT over the last 24 hours. IMF Bz was mostly southward
throughout the UT day. The solar wind speed is expected to remain
mostly near background to mildly elevated levels for the next
three days (15-17 October). The predicted mild enhancements are
due to small patchy equatorial coronal holes and the possible
glancing blow from the 12 October CME.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 22122121
Cocos Island 5 --121221
Darwin 5 22112121
Townsville 7 22123122
Learmonth 8 32223221
Alice Springs 5 22122121
Gingin 6 22123220
Hobart 7 22133121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Oct :
Macquarie Island 10 22134311
Casey 17 35323233
Mawson 24 24223464
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Oct 7 Quiet
17 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region
were quiet on UT day 14 October. In the Antarctic region the
geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to active levels. The disturbed
conditions in the high latitude regions were due to IMF Bz remaining
southwards for prolonged periods. Today, UT day 15 October, the
geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet with a
chance of being unsettled to active. The anticipated disturbed
conditions are due to patchy equatorial coronal holes and the
possible glancing blow from the 12 Oct CME. Mostly quiet conditions
are expected on UT days 16 and 17 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Oct Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were normal to poor on 14
October, as an aftermath of the recent disturbed conditions.
Degraded conditions are expected to continue in the high latitude
regions today, UT day 15 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Oct 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 24
Oct 29
Nov 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Oct 10 Near predicted monthly values
16 Oct 15 Near predicted monthly values
17 Oct 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were normal to poor on 14
October, as an aftermath of the recent disturbed conditions.
Degraded conditions are expected to continue in the high latitude
region today, UT day 15 October.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1e+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6e+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70e+06 (normal fluence)
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Oct
Speed: 425 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 74000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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