[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 October 21 issued 2348 UT on 12 Oct 2021
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 13 10:48:27 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 OCTOBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 OCTOBER - 15 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Oct: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 82/23 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 12 October. There are
currently three numbered regions with sunspots on the visible
solar disk. Very low to low solar activity is expected for UT
days 13-15 October with a slight chance of C-class flares. Region
2882 produced a long duration B-class at near ~12/0200 UT. This
event is associated with CME first observed in LASCO C2 imagery
starting at 12/0324 UT. Preliminary investigation suggests that
this CME may cause a glancing blow on Earth on UT day 15 October.
More updates on this event will be provided. No other Earth directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph data. On UT day
12 October, the solar wind speed was near its nominal levels
till 12/0144. After this time, the solar wind abruptly increased
to moderately elevated levels in response to the arrival of the
9 October CME. The total IMF (Bt) varied from 3 nT to 15 nT and
the north-south IMF (Bz) component range was +9/-15 nT during
the passage of the CME. The IMF conditions are currently near
its quiet levels. The solar wind speed is expected to remain
at moderate levels today, UT day 13 October, however it expected
to show a gradual declining trend as the CME effect wanes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Oct: Quiet to Major
Storm
Estimated Indices 12 Oct : A K
Australian Region 30 43564333
Cocos Island 21 33454332
Darwin 29 43564332
Townsville 31 44564333
Learmonth 30 43564333
Alice Springs 30 43564333
Gingin 29 43464343
Hobart 26 44553333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Oct :
Macquarie Island 53 44676532
Casey 20 44443323
Mawson 65 77655434
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Hobart 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 32
Planetary 51
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 13 3333 3122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Oct 7 Quiet
15 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions in the Australian and Antarctic
region reached major storm levels. In the Australian magnetometer
network observed a weak (13nT) impulse was observed at 12/0226UT.
The Australian region DST index reached -100 nT at 12/0600 UT.
These disturbed conditions were caused by the arrival of the
9 October full-halo CME. On UT day 13 October, the geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance
of being active as the CME effect begins to wane. Mostly quiet
conditions are expected on UT day 14 October. Conditions are
expected to be disturbed again UT day 15 October in response
to a possible glancing blow from the 12 Oct CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Oct Poor Poor Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Oct Fair Fair Normal-fair
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were poor on 12 October due
the observed disturbed conditions. Degraded conditions are expected
to continue over the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Oct 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data .
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 24
Oct 29
Nov 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Oct 8 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
14 Oct 15 Near predicted monthly values
15 Oct 25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 11 October were
mostly near predicted monthly to mildly depressed levels. Some
mild depressions were observed over the Cocos island and the
Southern Australian Region. MUFs are likely to be mildly depressed
on UT day 13-14 October due the recent disturbed conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Oct
Speed: 381 km/sec Density: 7.2 p/cc Temp: 72000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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