[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 October 21 issued 2331 UT on 10 Oct 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 11 10:31:02 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 OCTOBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 OCTOBER - 13 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Oct: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 10 October. Very low
to low solar activity is expected for UT days 11-13 October with
a slight chance of low M-class flares. The 9 October halo CME
is expected to arrive at Earth on UT day 11 October at around
1100 UT +/-6 hours. No other Earth directed CMEs have been observed
in the available coronagraph data. On UT day 10 October, the
solar wind speed was near its nominal levels, varying between
290 km/s and 340 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied from 4 nT to
12 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) component range was +10/-11
nT. IMF(Bz) was mostly southward since 10/0840 UT. The solar
wind speed is expected to be mostly near its nominal levels at
the beginning of UT day 11 October. Then the solar wind speed
is expected to reach moderate to high levels in response to the
arrival of the 9 October CME combined with effects from the equatorial
coronal hole reaching geoeffective location on the solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 10 Oct : A K
Australian Region 8 12112224
Cocos Island 7 12112233
Darwin 7 13112123
Townsville 7 12112124
Learmonth 7 02112224
Alice Springs 7 12112124
Gingin 10 12113234
Hobart 8 12123223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Oct :
Macquarie Island 13 02035412
Casey 14 24422233
Mawson 27 23213337
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1211 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Oct 30 Active to Minor Storm
12 Oct 20 Active
13 Oct 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 32 was issued on 10 October
and is current for 11-12 Oct. The geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian region were at quiet to active levels on UT day 10
October. In the Antarctic region the geomagnetic conditions were
at quiet to storm levels. On UT day 11 October, the geomagnetic
conditions are expected to reach minor storm levels with a chance
of major storm levels. This is in response to the expected arrival
of the 9 October CME combined with effects from the equatorial
coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Oct Fair Fair Fair-poor
12 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
13 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were normal on 10 October.
For 11 October, HF propagation conditions are expected to be
normal before the expected increase in geomagnetic activity;
then the conditions may degrade to mostly to fair levels. Degraded
conditions are also likely for 12 October. Shortwave fadeouts
are unlikely for the next three UT days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Oct 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 24
Oct 29
Nov 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Oct 25 Near predicted monthly values
12 Oct 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
13 Oct 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 10 October were
mostly near predicted monthly values. MUFs are likely to be mostly
near predicted monthly values on UT day 11 October. Mildly to
moderately depressed MUFs are possible on 12-13 October in response
to the expected increase in geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts
are unlikely for the next three UT days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Oct
Speed: 294 km/sec Density: 8.9 p/cc Temp: 26600 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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