[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 October 21 issued 2331 UT on 04 Oct 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 5 10:31:08 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 OCTOBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 OCTOBER - 07 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Oct: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Oct 06 Oct 07 Oct
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 84/26 84/26
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 4 October. There
are currently two numbered sunspot regions on the visible solar
disk. Very low to low solar activity is expected for UT days
5-7 October. No Earth directed CMEs have been observed in the
last 24 hours. On UT day 4 October, solar wind parameters were
near background levels. Overall, it exhibited a gradual declining
trend. The solar wind speed gradually decreased from 390 to 320
km/s. The peak total IMF (Bt) was 5 nT and the north-south IMF
(Bz) component range was +3/-4 nT and was mostly weakly southward
during the UT day. The solar wind speed is expected to be mostly
near its nominal levels for the next three UT days, with a chance
of slight enhancements today (UT day 05 October) due to a possible
weak coronal hole effect.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Oct : A K
Australian Region 1 11110001
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 1 11110001
Townsville 1 11010001
Learmonth 2 21110001
Alice Springs 1 11010001
Gingin 2 21110001
Canberra 1 11010001
Hobart 1 11110001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Oct :
Macquarie Island 2 11120000
Casey 8 33320112
Mawson 27 63222236
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 0312 1022
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Oct 7 Quiet with the possibility of some unsettled
periods
06 Oct 5 Quiet
07 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region
and quiet to unsettled conditions with two minor storm periods
were observed in the Antarctic regions on UT day 04 October.
Mostly quiet global geomagnetic conditions may be expected for
the next 3 UT days (05 to 07 October) with the possibility of
some unsettled periods on 05 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were normal on 4 October.
Normal HF conditions are expected for the next three UT days,
5 to 7 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Oct 28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 24
Oct 29
Nov 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Oct 28 Near predicted monthly values
06 Oct 30 Near predicted monthly values
07 Oct 30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 4 October were
mostly near predicted monthly values. MUFs are likely to be mostly
near predicted monthly values on 5-7 October.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Oct
Speed: 402 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 71400 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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