[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 November 21 issued 2331 UT on 29 Nov 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 30 10:31:05 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 NOVEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 NOVEMBER - 02 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Nov:  90/34


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Nov             01 Dec             02 Dec
Activity     Very low to low    Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    92/37              92/37              90/34

COMMENT: On UT day 29 November, solar activity was very low. 
There are currently three numbered regions on the visible solar 
disc. A new region has emerged near N23E09 and is growing. Solar 
activity is expected to be very low to low on UT days 30 November 
to 02 December. A filament erupted from the southern hemisphere 
between about 0730-1030 UT producing a CME which is expected 
to impact Earth in the latter half of 02 December. The solar 
wind speed remained below 400 km/s on 29 November, the peak total 
IMF was 8 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) range was +4/-8 nT. 
There was sustained southward Bz between 28/2033-29/0430 UT to 
-8 nT. There may be a weak enhancement to conditions on 30 November 
due to a small northern hemisphere coronal hole (#25). A coronal 
hole wind stream associated with CH#27 may take effect late on 
01 or 02 December with the aforementioned CME expected later 
on 02 December.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 29 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   32111011
      Cocos Island         1   21000010
      Darwin               3   22111001
      Townsville           5   32211011
      Learmonth            5   32111121
      Alice Springs        3   22201001
      Gingin               6   32111122
      Canberra             3   22111011
      Hobart               5   32212110    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     8   23043100
      Casey               14   34522121
      Mawson              25   54322263

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   2311 0012     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Nov     9    Quiet to Unsettled
01 Dec    11    Quiet to active with a possible minor storm period.
02 Dec    20    Unsettled to active with possible minor storm 
                periods.

COMMENT: On UT day 29 November, geomagnetic conditions in the 
Australian region were quiet to unsettled. Quiet to storm levels 
were observed in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to be quiet to unsettled on 30 November and mostly 
quiet on 01 December. Late on 01 December or 02 December, a coronal 
hole wind stream is likely to increase activity along with the 
expected arrival of a CME later on 02 December. Unsettled to 
minor storm conditions are expected.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
02 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions with occasional 
mild degradations are expected on UT days 30 November to 02 December.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Nov    11

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      18
Nov      32
Dec      35

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Nov    10    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
01 Dec    10    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
02 Dec    10    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 29 November 
were near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions. 
Depressions to 30% at Learmonth Cocos Is. 01-06 UT. MUFs are 
expected to be near predicted monthly values to mildly depressed 
on UT days 30 November to 02 December.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Nov
Speed: 373 km/sec  Density:   13.7 p/cc  Temp:    55600 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.

More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list