[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 November 21 issued 2330 UT on 10 Nov 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 11 10:30:55 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 NOVEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 NOVEMBER - 13 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Nov: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 88/32 88/32 86/29
COMMENT: On UT day 10 November, solar activity was very low.
There are currently three numbered regions on the visible disk;
2893, 2894 and 2895. Regions 2893 and 2894 are simple(alpha magnetic
class) and remained relatively stable while region 2895 (beta
magnetic class) has decreased somehow in area and magnetic complexity.
Solar activity is expected to be very low on 11-13 November with
a chance of C-class flares. No Earth directed CMEs observed in
the available satellite imagery. On UT day 10 November, the solar
wind speed was slightly enhanced, varied between 390 and 450
Km/s. The total IMF (Bt) was around 5 nT and the north-south
IMF (Bz) component range was +/-5 nT with several southward excursions.
Solar wind speed is expected to be near background levels on
UT days 11-12 November. Slightly enhanced solar wind speed may
be observed on 13 November due to week coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Nov: Mostly quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 11221011
Cocos Island 1 11101010
Darwin 3 11121011
Townsville 4 11221012
Learmonth 4 21221011
Alice Springs 3 11221011
Gingin 4 21222011
Canberra 3 11221011
Hobart 6 12331012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Nov :
Macquarie Island 8 12343000
Casey 17 45432112
Mawson 23 53333254
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2111 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Nov 7 Quiet
12 Nov 5 Quiet
13 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 10 November, geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian region were mostly at quiet levels. Isolated active
and storm levels were observed in the Antarctic region. Conditions
are expected to be mostly at quiet levels on 11-12 November.
Possible unsettled periods may be observed on 13 November due
to weak coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
12 Nov Normal Normal Normal
13 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF propagation conditions mostly at
mid and high latitudes may be observed today, 11 November. Mostly
normal HF propagation conditions are expected on UT days, 12-13
November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Nov 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 18
Nov 32
Dec 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Nov 12 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
12 Nov 20 Near predicted monthly values
13 Nov 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 10 November
were moderately depressed. The depressions were more prominent
in the Southern Australian Regions. MUFs are expected to continue
recovery to near monthly predicted values over the next three
UT days, 11-13 November. Mildly depressed MUFs mostly at mid
and high latitudes may be observed today, 11 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Nov
Speed: 377 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 76900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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