[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 November 21 issued 2331 UT on 01 Nov 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 2 10:31:15 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 NOVEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 NOVEMBER - 04 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.5    0147UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Nov: 105/54


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Nov             03 Nov             04 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   102/50             100/48              98/45

COMMENT: On UT day 01 November solar activity was moderate due 
to an M1.5/1F flare at 0145UT, this event was associated with 
a south-west directed coronal mass ejection, visible in LASCO 
and STEREO-A space based coronagraphs and analysis and modelling 
suggest a glancing blow is likely to reach the Earth middle of 
the UT day on 04 November. The flare originated from AR2887 (S29W45), 
a small solar filament erupted near this solar region between 
1738-1744UT. Solar wind speed was mildly elevated ranging from 
327-459km/sec, the total IMF Bt peaked at 15nT, and the north-south 
component of the IMF (Bz) ranged between -11/+15nT. Solar wind 
conditions are expected to be mildly enhanced with a declining 
trend 02-03 November,then moderately enhanced wind speed are 
expected 04 November due to recent coronal mass ejections.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Nov: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 01 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22122134
      Cocos Island         6   11111133
      Darwin               9   21122134
      Townsville          11   22132234
      Learmonth            9   22122134
      Alice Springs        9   22122134
      Gingin               7   21131033
      Canberra             8   11121134
      Hobart               8   12231133    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    11   12151123
      Casey               16   44331134
      Mawson               8   33211123

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart              20   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             22   2112 5243     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled
03 Nov     7    Quiet
04 Nov    25    Active to Minor Storm

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
at quiet to active levels, with a single active period observed 
late in the UT day. In the Antarctic region quiet to minor storm 
levels were observed. Conditions are expected to be quiet to 
unsettled for 02-03 November, with geomagnetic activity expected 
to increase on 04 November to active levels, with minor storm 
periods possible due to coronal mass ejections observed on 01 
November.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Nov      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Nov      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor

COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are expected to be mostly 
normal on UT days 2-3 November. Mildly degraded conditions are 
expected on 04 November for southern Australian region only due 
to expected geomagnetic activity from recent coronal mass ejections.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Nov    33

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      18
Nov      32
Dec      35

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Nov    30    Near predicted monthly values
03 Nov    30    Near predicted monthly values
04 Nov    15    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15%

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 29 was issued on 1 
November and is current for 1-3 Nov. MUFs in the Australian region 
on UT day 01 November were mostly near predicted monthly values. 
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values 
on UT days 2-3 November, mildly degraded conditions for southern 
Australian region may be experienced on 04 November..

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.0E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Oct
Speed: 422 km/sec  Density:    9.1 p/cc  Temp:   106000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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