[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 April 21 issued 2330 UT on 30 Apr 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 1 09:30:07 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 APRIL 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 01 MAY - 03 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Apr:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 May             02 May             03 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 30 April. There 
are currently three spotted regions on the visible disk, ARs 
2818, 2820 and 2821. An eastward directed CME was observed in 
the LASCO C2 images starting from 30/13:48 UT. It does not seem 
to have any earthward directed component, but further analysis 
will be done. Solar activity is expected to be very low with 
a chance of a C-class flare for the next three UT days, 01 to 
03 May. On UT day 30 April, the solar wind speed mostly remained 
near background levels between 310 km/s and 330 km/s. However, 
some enhancements upto 357 km/s were observed in the solar wind 
speed between 1400 and 1600UT. The IMF (Bt) ranged from 5 nT 
to 9 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) range was mosty +7/-2 nT. 
Bz went negative upto -6 nT between 1400 and 1600UT. The solar 
wind speed is expected to be at background levels initially on 
UT day 01 May. However, equatorial coronal holes moving into 
geoeffective position are expected to elevate the solar wind 
speed to slightly enhanced levels late on UT day 01 May and stay 
moderately elevated on 02 May. Also if the weak 26 April CME 
from a filament eruption arrives at Earth on UT day 1 May, it 
could further increase the solar wind speed to moderately enhanced 
levels. Solar wind speed is expected to decline to normal levels 
on UT day 03 May.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 30 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11010220
      Cocos Island         2   110-----
      Darwin               3   210-----
      Townsville           3   210-----
      Learmonth            2   110-----
      Alice Springs        2   110-----
      Gingin               1   01------
      Canberra             0   000-----
      Hobart               2   01010220    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     0   000-----
      Casey               11   133-----
      Mawson               5   221-----

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   1211 2121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 May    12    Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods 
                possible
02 May    14    Quiet to active
03 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
at quiet levels on UT day 30 April. Mostly quiet levels with 
two unsettled periods were observed in the Antarctic region. 
Quiet to unsettled conditions with possible active periods are 
expected on UT day 01 May. On UT day 02 May the geomagnetic conditions 
may stay enhanced to unsettled to active levels and then decline 
to quiet to unsettled on 03 May. The weak CME on 26 April could 
impact Earth on UT day 01 May, possibly increasing the disturbance 
levels from unsettled to active.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
02 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Some mild to moderate degradation in HF propagation 
conditions at high latitudes may occur on UT days 01-02 May. 
Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected on UT day 
03 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Apr    11

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      9
Apr      19
May      23

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 May    10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
02 May     5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
03 May    15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 30 April were 
mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions 
in the Northern Australian region. Some mild to moderate MUF 
depressions are possible on UT days 01-02 May due to the expected 
increase in geomagnetic activity. MUFs are expected to be mostly 
near predicted monthly values on UT day 03 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Apr
Speed: 329 km/sec  Density:    6.5 p/cc  Temp:    19600 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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