[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 March 21 issued 2330 UT on 30 Mar 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 31 10:30:08 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 MARCH 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 31 MARCH - 02 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Mar: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Mar 01 Apr 02 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 30 March. AR2812
(N20W35) decayed to plage. Plage region, AR2811 (N20W54), produced
a B7.4 flare at 2005 UT. Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three UT days, 31 March - 02 April. SDO 304
images show filament activity in the northern hemisphere of the
visible solar disc with what appears to be an eruption. This
may be related to a narrow CME that is visible in STEREO A images
after 1623 UT; analysis is ongoing. On 30 March, solar wind parameters
were near nominal levels, with a speed range of 305-410 km/s,
a peak total IMF (Bt) of 6 nT, and a north-south IMF (Bz) range
of +3/-4 nT. Mild elevations in speed and density have occurred
since about 1630 UT due to weak coronal hole effects. Solar wind
parameters should be mostly near nominal levels 31 March to 01
April. Recurrent weak coronal hole effects are expected to result
in moderate wind speeds on 02 April.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Mar : A K
Australian Region 1 00001011
Darwin 1 10001011
Townsville 1 00001011
Learmonth 1 10001011
Alice Springs 1 00001011
Gingin 1 00000021
Canberra 1 00001011
Hobart 1 10000011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Mar :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 4 13201012
Mawson 11 22000145
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 1210 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Apr 12 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed in the Australian region
on UT day 30 March, with quiet to minor storm levels observed
at southern high latitudes. Quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected 31 March to 01 April. Recurrent weak coronal hole effects
may commence late on 01 April, but more likely 02 April, causing
quiet to unsettled conditions with the possibility of an isolated
active period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Some MUF depressions observed on 30 March, mostly in
the southern hemisphere. Mostly normal conditions are expected
for 31 March to 02 April.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Mar 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -1
Mar 16
Apr 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values
01 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values
02 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUF depressions to about 20% were observed to 07 UT
on UT day, 30 March. Spread F was observed at Hobart 09-20 UT.
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
on 31 March to 02 April.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Mar
Speed: 333 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 11900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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