[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 March 21 issued 2340 UT on 20 Mar 2021
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 21 10:40:59 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 MARCH 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 21 MARCH - 23 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Mar: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Mar 22 Mar 23 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 20 March. There
is currently one numbered region on the visible disk, 2810(N21E13).
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three
UT days 21-23 March. A slow CME was observed in SOHO and STEREO
imagery around 20/0048UT most likely associated with a filament
eruption. It is not expected to have a significant earth directed
component however a glancing blow may arrive late 23 March. The
solar wind parameters reflected the arrival of the predicted
CIR and HSS from a mid latitude negative polarity coronal hole.
The solar wind speed stared increasing from 19/2050UT and reached
670 Km/s at 20/1600UT, currently around 590 km/s. The north-south
IMF (Bz) sustained a southward orientation up to -19 nT between
20/0428-1120UT and the total IMF (Bt) reached 23 nT at 20/0412UT.
The solar wind speed is expected to remain enhanced on UT days
21-23 March. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement
event beginning 20/0715UT, which can be a precursor to increased
geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Mar: Quiet to active
with isolated minor storm periods.
Estimated Indices 20 Mar : A K
Australian Region 17 24444222
Cocos Island 14 24443211
Darwin 17 24444222
Townsville 17 24444222
Learmonth 24 24554332
Alice Springs 20 24454322
Gingin 17 23444332
Canberra 16 23543222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Mar :
Macquarie Island 37 13754532
Casey 34 36653323
Mawson 45 34543367
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 31
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1322 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Mar 20 Quiet to active with possible minor storm periods.
22 Mar 15 Quiet to Active
23 Mar 15 Quiet to active.
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 11 was issued on 17 March and
is current for 19-21 Mar. Quiet to active conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 20 March with some isolated
minor storm periods. Major storm levels were observed in the
Antarctic region. This disturbance is associated to CIR and HSS
from a coronal hole. Quiet to active levels are expected today,
21 March with possible minor storm periods. Quiet to active conditions
are likely on UT day 22-23 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Mar Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
22 Mar Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
23 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderate degradation in HF conditions are possible
on UT days 21-23 March.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Mar 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -1
Mar 16
Apr 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Mar -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
22 Mar -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
23 Mar -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 10 was issued on 19 March
and is current for 20-22 Mar. On UT day 20 March, MUFs in the
Australian region were mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced MUFs observed in the Northern Australian region local
night. Sporadic E was observed at times at some stations. Mild
to moderate MUF depressions are possible on UT days 21-23 March
in response to forecast geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Mar
Speed: 309 km/sec Density: 8.1 p/cc Temp: 22100 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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