[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 March 21 issued 2330 UT on 18 Mar 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 19 10:30:06 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 MARCH 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 19 MARCH - 21 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Mar: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Mar 20 Mar 21 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 18 March. There
are currently three numbered regions on the visible disk; 2808
(N19W43), 2809 (S21W74) and 2810 (N21E40). Solar activity is
expected to be very low for the next three UT days 19-21 March.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
images. The solar wind speed range was 312 km/s to 350 km/s.
The total IMF (Bt) was between 1 nT and 5 nT; the north-south
IMF (Bz) was in the range +4/-3 nT. Solar wind speed is expected
to be at background levels initially on UT day 19 March. However
a large Southern Polar coronal hole with low latitude extensions
will become geoeffective with the CIR arriving from late on UT
day 19 March. The HSS from the coronal hole is expected to follow
on UT days 20-21 March, elevating the solar wind speed from moderately
to strongly enhanced levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Mar : A K
Australian Region 2 21110001
Cocos Island 2 21100001
Darwin 3 21111002
Townsville 3 21111011
Learmonth 2 21110011
Alice Springs 2 21111001
Gingin 1 20100001
Canberra 1 11110000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Mar :
Macquarie Island 0 11000000
Casey 6 33310011
Mawson 17 33311026
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 2000 1321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
20 Mar 20 Active with the possibility of a G1 minor storm
21 Mar 20 Active with the possibility of a G1 minor storm
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 11 was issued on 17 March and
is current for 19-21 Mar. Quiet conditions were observed in the
Australian region on UT day 18 March. Quiet to unsettled levels
with one storm period were observed in the Antarctic region.
Global geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet
initially on UT day 19 March. However a large Southern Polar
coronal hole with low latitude extensions will become geoeffective
with the CIR possibly arriving from late on UT day 19 March,
causing unsettled to active conditions. The HSS from the coronal
hole is expected to follow on UT days 20-21 March, causing active
conditions with the possibility of a G1 minor storm.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
21 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected on UT day 19
March. Some mild to moderate degradation in HF conditions are
likely on UT days 20-21 March.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Mar 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -1
Mar 16
Apr 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values
20 Mar -15 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
21 Mar -15 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 18 March, MUFs in the Australian region were
mostly near predicted monthly values. Sporadic E was observed
at times at some stations. MUFs in the Australian region are
expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT day
19 March. Mild to moderate MUF depressions are likely on UT days
20-21 March in response to forecast geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Mar
Speed: 350 km/sec Density: 6.2 p/cc Temp: 50800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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