[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 March 21 issued 2330 UT on 11 Mar 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 12 10:30:08 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 MARCH 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 12 MARCH - 14 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Mar:  78/17


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Mar             13 Mar             14 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              78/17              78/17

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 11 March with 
a B1.4 flare from region 2808(N18E47) at 1137UT. There are currently 
three numbered regions on the visible disk; 2807(S19W72), 2808 
and 2809(S23E20). Solar activity is expected to be very low for 
the next three UT days 12-14 March with a slight chance of a 
C-class flare. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph images. A small filament eruption was observed in 
H-alpha Learmonth in the SE quadrant around 11/01UT and a prominence 
on the eastern limb between N50 and N60 around 11/02UT. No associated 
CME signature was observed in the available coronagraph images. 
The solar wind speed range was 340 km/s to 410 km/s. The total 
IMF (Bt) varied between 2-8nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) range 
was +6/-5 nT. Solar wind speed is expected to remain near background 
levels until the arrival of CIR and HSS from a negative polarity 
low latitude coronal hole late on UT day 12 March. Solar wind 
speed is expected to remain enhanced on UT days 13-14 March.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Mar: Mostly quiet

Estimated Indices 11 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11100012
      Cocos Island         2   11100012
      Darwin               2   10100012
      Townsville           5   13100113
      Learmonth            1   10000012
      Alice Springs        2   11100012
      Gingin               2   11000012
      Canberra             2   01000013    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     1   01000002
      Casey                7   33310112
      Mawson              12   21011016

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0000 0111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Mar    12    Quiet to unsettled with possible active periods
13 Mar    15    Quiet to active
14 Mar    15    Quiet to active

COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 11 March. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed 
in the Antarctic region with one isolated storm period. Geomagnetic 
conditions are expected to remain at quiet levels before increasing 
to unsettled levels with possible active periods due to the arrival 
of a HSS from the coronal hole late today, 12 March. Quiet to 
active conditions are expected to continue on UT days 13-14 March

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
14 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT day 12 March. Some degradation in HF conditions may be 
observed on UT days 13-14 March.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Mar    15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      -1
Mar      16
Apr      20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Mar    10    Near predicted monthly values
13 Mar    -5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
14 Mar    -5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%

COMMENT: On UT day 11 March, MUFs in the Australian region were 
mostly near predicted monthly values. Sporadic E was observed 
at times at some stations. MUFs in the Australian region are 
expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT day 
12 March. Mild to moderate MUF depressions might be observed 
on UT days 13-14 March in response to forecast geomagnetic activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Mar
Speed: 397 km/sec  Density:    4.4 p/cc  Temp:    93800 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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