[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 June 21 issued 2330 UT on 28 Jun 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 29 09:30:06 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JUNE 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 29 JUNE - 01 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jun: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jun 30 Jun 01 Jul
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 28 June. Currently
there are three numbered regions on the visible disk: AR 2835
(S18E24), AR 2836 (S29E18) and AR 2837 (N18E68). Region 2836
produced a C2 flare at 0935 UT and region 2835 produced a C1.6
flare at 1911 UT.A DSF was observed in H-alpha and SDO 304 images
around 28/17 UT near S30W15. There was a westward CME observed
in Lasco coronagraph images around 28/11 UT, but a source on
the visible disk could not be found so it is probably from the
far side of the Sun. No other significant CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph images. Solar activity is expected
to be very low to low on UT days 29 June until 01 July. On 28
June, the solar wind speed followed a decreasing trend from 370
km/s down to 315 km/s. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 5 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +2/-3 nT. The solar wind speed is
expected to be near background levels on UT day 29 June. Then
on UT days 30 June and 01 July, the solar wind speed may be elevated
to slightly enhanced levels due to a weak coronal hole effects
and a possible minor CME effect on 01 July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Jun : A K
Australian Region 0 10000000
Cocos Island 0 00000000
Darwin 1 11000001
Townsville 1 11000001
Learmonth 0 00000000
Alice Springs 0 00000000
Gingin 0 10000000
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 10000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 1 11100000
Mawson 5 31111013
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1110 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jun 5 Quiet
30 Jun 8 Quiet with some unsettled periods
01 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet on UT day 28 June. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic
conditions were mostly quiet. Global geomagnetic conditions are
expected to be mostly quiet on UT day 29 June. Then on UT days
30 June and 01 July, quiet to unsettled conditions are expected
due to weak coronal hole effects on both days and possible additional
minor CME effects on 01 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jun Normal Normal Normal
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 29 June until 01 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jun 21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 13
Jun 22
Jul 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jun 20 Near predicted monthly values
30 Jun 15 Near predicted monthly values
01 Jul 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 28 June were
mostly near predicted monthly values with periods of minor enhancements
during local nights in Southern Australian regions. MUFs are
expected to be near predicted monthly values on UT days 29 June
until 01 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jun
Speed: 350 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 61200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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