[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 June 21 issued 2330 UT on 08 Jun 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 9 09:30:06 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 JUNE 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 09 JUNE - 11 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jun: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 78/17 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 8 June with a C1.4
flare at 1053 UT, C2.4 flare at 1723 UT and C1.1 flare at 19
UT, all from region 2831 that is on the North West limb. Regions
2827 and 2830 are also rotating off the Western limb. The only
other numbered region on the visible disk is 2829 (Cro-Beta at
S20W28). There is also an unnumbered region Bxo-Beta at N14W71.
There was a DSF observed in H-alpha and SDO images around 8/1437
UT near S20W35. No CMEs have yet been observed in the limited
coronagraph images. Solar activity is expected to be very low
to low on UT day 9 June and then very low on UT days 10-11 June.
On UT day 8 June, the solar wind speed followed a decreasing
trend from 555 km/s down to 395 km/s due to fading coronal hole
effects. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 8 nT and the north-south IMF
component (Bz) range was +/-3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to continue decreasing to background levels on UT day 9 June.
Then the solar wind speed is expected remain near background
levels on UT days 10-11 June.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 12111000
Cocos Island 2 12110000
Darwin 2 12110000
Townsville 3 22111011
Learmonth 3 22211000
Alice Springs 2 12110000
Gingin 2 12211000
Canberra 2 12120000
Hobart 3 12121010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Jun :
Macquarie Island 3 11221010
Casey 4 22211011
Mawson 14 44421132
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Hobart 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 13 1222 2344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Jun 8 Mostly quiet
11 Jun 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian regions were
quiet on UT day 8 June. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic
conditions were quiet to active. Global geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be quiet to unsettled on UT day 9 June due to
fading coronal hole effects. Then mostly quiet conditions are
expected on UT days 10-11 June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 9-11 June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jun 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 13
Jun 22
Jul 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jun 20 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jun 15 Near predicted monthly values
11 Jun 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 8 June were
mostly near predicted monthly values. There were some enhancements
in the Southern Australian region during the local night. Mostly
normal HF propagation conditions are expected on UT days 9-11
June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jun
Speed: 364 km/sec Density: 13.6 p/cc Temp: 151000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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