[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 July 21 issued 2330 UT on 19 Jul 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 20 09:30:07 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JULY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JULY - 22 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jul: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jul 21 Jul 22 Jul
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 88/32 88/32
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 19 July with two weak
but long duration C-class flares, at 19 UT and 21 UT, from a
region just beyond the south eastern limb. There is a chance
of more C-class flares and CMEs from this emerging region when
it rotates over the eastern limb. Currently there are four numbered
regions on the visible disk: AR2841, AR2842 AR2844 and AR2845.
There were no Earth directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph
images. Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for
the next three UT days, 20-22 July, with a chance of C-class
flares. On 19 July, the solar wind speed followed an increasing
trend from 365 km/s up to 465 km/s. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 8
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +/-6 nT.
The solar wind speed is expected to be near background levels
to slightly enhanced for the next three UT days, 20-22 July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 21301110
Cocos Island 3 11301110
Darwin 5 22311111
Townsville 5 22311111
Learmonth 4 21301120
Alice Springs 4 21301111
Gingin 4 11301120
Canberra 3 11301110
Hobart 3 12201110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jul :
Macquarie Island 1 01100010
Casey 5 32211120
Mawson 19 53312434
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 3 1001 1102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jul 5 Quiet
21 Jul 5 Quiet
22 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet to unsettled on UT day 19 July. In the and Antarctic region,
geomagnetic conditions were quiet to active with one minor storm
period. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly
quiet with isolated chance of unsettled periods on UT days 20-22
July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jul Normal Normal Normal
21 Jul Normal Normal Normal
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 20-22 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jul 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 13
Jul 23
Aug 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jul 15 Near predicted monthly values
21 Jul 15 Near predicted monthly values
22 Jul 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 19 July were
mostly near predicted monthly values. There were some mild MUF
depressions in the Northern Australian region during the local
day. There were also some MUF enhancements in the Cocos Island
region during the local day. MUFs in the Australian region are
expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days
20-22 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jul
Speed: 392 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 77000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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