[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 July 21 issued 2330 UT on 09 Jul 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 10 09:30:07 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JULY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JULY - 12 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jul:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Jul             11 Jul             12 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    73/9               73/9               73/9

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 09 July with several 
B-class and three C-class flares from regions 2840- the largest 
being a C7 flare that peaked at 1050UT. All these C-flares are 
associated with CMEs, which are non-earthward directed. Currently 
there are three numbered regions on the visible disk: AR 2837 
(N18W75), AR 2839 (N18W25), and AR2841 (S18E57). Solar activity 
is expected to be very low on UT days 10-12 July with a small 
chance of C-class flares. On 09 July, the solar wind speed was 
between 300 km/s and 340 km/s. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 6 nT and 
the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +6/-5 nT. The solar 
wind speed is expected to be near its background levels on UT 
day 10 July. Then the solar wind speed may be elevated to slight 
to moderate levels on UT days 11-12 July due to coronal hole 
effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 09 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   10110001
      Cocos Island         1   10100001
      Darwin               1   10110001
      Townsville           2   21110001
      Learmonth            1   11110000
      Alice Springs        0   10000001
      Gingin               0   00110000
      Canberra             0   11000000
      Hobart               1   10110000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00010000
      Casey                2   12121000
      Mawson               5   33121000

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   2120 1121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Jul     5    Quiet
11 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
12 Jul    14    Quiet to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
quiet on UT day 09 July. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic 
conditions were mostly quiet with two unsettled periods. Global 
geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet on UT day 10 
July. Then unsettled conditions on 11 July and Active conditions 
on 12 July may be observed due to coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs on UT day 09 July were mostly near predicted monthly 
values. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly 
values on UT days 10-12 July with some possibility of minor depressions 
on 12 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Jul    14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      13
Jul      23
Aug      26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Jul    15    Near predicted monthly values
11 Jul    15    Near predicted monthly values
12 Jul    10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 09 July were 
mostly near predicted monthly values. MUFs in the Australian 
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values 
on UT days 10-12 July with some possibility of minor depressions 
on 12 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.3E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A8.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jul
Speed: 324 km/sec  Density:    8.7 p/cc  Temp:    17600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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