[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 June 21 issued 2330 UT on 30 Jun 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 1 09:30:06 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JUNE 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 01 JULY - 03 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jun: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jul 02 Jul 03 Jul
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 94/40 94/40 94/40
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 30 June with two C-class
flares, C1.4 at 1728 UT and C3.6 at 1815 UT both from region
2835. Currently there are three numbered regions on the visible
disk: AR 2835 (S19W02), AR 2836 (S29W06) and AR 2837 (N17E42).
A DSF was observed in H-alpha and SDO 304 images around 30/19
UT near S35W08. There were no Earth directed CMEs observed in
the available coronagraph images during the last 24 hours. Solar
activity is expected to be very low to low on UT days 01-03 July.
On 30 June, the solar wind speed increased from 325 km/s up to
520km/s due to coronal hole effects. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 11
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +7/-10 nT.
A CME related to the dimming at 29/5:14UT and first observed
at 29/06:364UT, may arrive late on UT day 02 or early on 03 July.
The confidence for it's arrival is low. The solar wind speed
is expected to be slightly to moderately enhanced on UT days
01-03 July, due to coronal hole effects and possible minor CME
effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jun: Quiet to unsettled
with one active period
Estimated Indices 30 Jun : A K
Australian Region 7 02221233
Cocos Island 6 02121223
Darwin 7 13121223
Townsville 9 13221233
Learmonth 6 0222222-
Alice Springs 7 02221233
Gingin 10 02221244
Canberra 6 02221223
Hobart 7 02231223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jun :
Macquarie Island 12 01342333
Casey 7 02221233
Mawson 42 13332277
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1001 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jul 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible
02 Jul 8 Quiet to unsettled
03 Jul 15 Quiet to unsettled, some active periods possible
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet to unsettled with one active period on UT day 30 June.
In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic conditions were quiet to
active with two storm periods. Global geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled on UT days 01-03
July with the possibility of some active periods on 01 July due
to coronal hole effects and possible minor CME effects. If the
CME related to the dimming at 29/5:14UT and first observed at
29/06:364UT, does arrive on the earth, some active periods may
also be observed late on UT day 02 and/or early on 03 July. The
confidence in the arrival of this CME is low.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 01-03 July.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jun 23
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 13
Jun 22
Jul 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jul 15 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jul 18 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jul 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 30 June were
mostly near predicted monthly values with periods of moderate
enhancements during the local night in the Southern Australian
region. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values on UT days 01-03 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jun
Speed: 326 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 20900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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