[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 January 21 issued 2337 UT on 30 Jan 2021

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 31 10:37:06 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JANUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JANUARY - 02 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jan:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Jan             01 Feb             02 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    74/11              74/11              72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 30 January. The 
Sun is spotless. Solar activity is expected to be very low over 
the next three UT days, 31 January to 02 February. Filament eruptions 
occurred near N44E90 around 0300 UT and S52E33 near 0918 UT. 
The former filament produced a weak CME that is unlikely to be 
geoeffective while there is no apparent CME signature in images 
that could be related to the latter. There is low confidence 
in the modelling of the northwest CME on 29 January. Modelling 
suggests a miss. A weak southwest CME early on 30 January was 
unable to be modelled. On 30 January, the solar wind speed was 
below 355 km/s, the peak total IMF (Bt) was 5 nT and the north-south 
IMF component (Bz) range was +2/-3 nT. A coronal hole wind stream 
is expected to elevate solar wind parameters on 01 February through 
02 February.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 30 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11000100
      Cocos Island         0   11000000
      Darwin               1   10100101
      Townsville           2   11110111
      Learmonth            1   11000100
      Alice Springs        1   11000100
      Gingin               1   11000100
      Canberra             0   10000000
      Hobart               1   01100100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     0   01000000
      Casey                8   33321112
      Mawson               6   22111223

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0100 0000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Jan     9    Quiet to Unsettled
01 Feb    20    Unsettled to Minor Storm
02 Feb    13    Quiet to Active

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 29 January and 
is current for 1-2 Feb. Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Australian region on UT day 30 January. Quiet to unsettled 
levels were observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic 
activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 31 January. 
A recurrent coronal hole wind stream is expected to cause active 
to minor storm conditions 01 to 02 February.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
02 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: On UT day 30 January, MUFs were near predicted monthly 
values, with periods of depressions in the southern hemisphere. 
Mostly normal conditions are expected 31 January to 01 February 
with degradations in conditions and MUFs on 02 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Jan    -3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      11
Jan      9
Feb      11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Jan     0    Near predicted monthly values
01 Feb     5    Near predicted monthly values
02 Feb   -20    Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 2 was issued on 30 January 
and is current for 30-31 Jan. On UT day 30 January, MUFs in lower 
and mid latitudes of the Australian region were moderately depressed 
in the first half of the 24 hours, then near predicted monthly 
levels. Sporadic E was observed, strong at times. MUFs in the 
Australian region are expected to be near predicted monthly values 
on 31 January to 01 February, although daytime depressions may 
continue. Sporadic E occurrences are likely. Depressions likely 
on 02 February in response to expected geomagnetic activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.1E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jan
Speed: 379 km/sec  Density:    4.2 p/cc  Temp:    75200 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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