[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 January 21 issued 2330 UT on 28 Jan 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 29 10:30:08 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JANUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JANUARY - 31 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jan: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jan 30 Jan 31 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 75/13 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 28 January with
no flares. There are three numbered regions on the visible solar
disc, AR2797, AR2798 and AR2800. Over the next three UT days,
29 to 31 January, solar activity is expected to be very low with
a little chance of C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in the available satellite images. On 28 January, the
solar wind speed decreased from 550 km/s to 400 km/s. This is
in response to the waning effect of a coronal hole. The total
IMF (Bt) stayed at about 5 nT and the Bz range was +3/-5 nT with
periods of southward Bz. The solar wind speed is expected to
return to nominal levels on 29 January. On 30-31 January solar
wind is expected to remain at nominal levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Jan : A K
Australian Region 1 21100000
Cocos Island 0 20000000
Darwin 2 21101001
Townsville 3 21101111
Learmonth 1 21000001
Alice Springs 0 20000000
Gingin 1 21000000
Canberra 1 21100000
Hobart 1 21100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jan :
Macquarie Island 1 21000000
Casey 11 44321111
Mawson 15 54211114
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 2322 1213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jan 4 Quiet
30 Jan 4 Quiet
31 Jan 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 28 January. Quiet to active levels were observed
in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic activity is expected
to be mostly quiet for the next 3 UT days 29-31 January, with
an isolated chance of unsettled periods on 29 January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jan Normal Normal Normal
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: On UT day 28 January, MUFs were mostly near predicted
monthly values, with depressed conditions in the high latitude
regions. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values on UT days 29 to 31 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jan 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 11
Jan 9
Feb 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jan 0 Near predicted monthly values
30 Jan 0 Near predicted monthly values
31 Jan 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 28 January, MUFs in the Australian region
were near predicted monthly levels. Sporadic E was observed,
strong at times. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to
be near predicted monthly values on 29 to 31 January. Sporadic
E occurrences are likely.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jan
Speed: 544 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 388000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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