[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 January 21 issued 2330 UT on 24 Jan 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 25 10:30:08 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JANUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JANUARY - 27 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jan:  78/17


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Jan             26 Jan             27 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              78/17              78/17

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 24 January. There 
are currently three numbered regions on the visible solar disc. 
Solar activity is expected to be very low over the next three 
UT days, 25 to 27 January. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed 
in the available satellite images. On 24 January, the solar wind 
speed was below 400 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) peaked at 9 nT and 
the Bz range was +7/-6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to 
be mostly near nominal levels to mildly elevated levels on 25 
to 26 January. The expected mild enhancement is due to coronal 
hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 24 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21112222
      Cocos Island         5   11212221
      Darwin               5   21112222
      Townsville           6   22212222
      Learmonth            7   21113232
      Alice Springs        5   21112222
      Gingin               5   21102222
      Canberra             5   11112222
      Hobart               6   12113222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     3   11102112
      Casey               11   34322222
      Mawson              10   32222233

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1011 0102     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
26 Jan     7    Quiet
27 Jan     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in 
the Australian region on UT day 24 January. Mostly quiet to unsettled 
levels were observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic 
activity is expected to be mostly quiet on 25 to 27 January. 
Conditions may become mildly disturbed on 25 January due to coronal 
hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: On UT day 24 January, MUFs were mostly near predicted 
monthly values with some periods of moderate depressions in the 
high latitude regions in the Southern hemisphere. MUFs are expected 
to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days 25 to 27 
January.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Jan    10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      11
Jan      9
Feb      11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Jan     0    Near predicted monthly values
26 Jan     0    Near predicted monthly values
27 Jan     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 24 January, MUFs in the Australian region 
were near predicted monthly levels with moderate nighttime enhancements 
in the Northern Australian region. Sporadic E was observed, strong 
at times. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be near 
predicted monthly values on 25 to 27 January. Sporadic E occurrences 
are likely.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jan
Speed: 332 km/sec  Density:   10.1 p/cc  Temp:    34200 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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