[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 January 21 issued 2330 UT on 21 Jan 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 22 10:30:08 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JANUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JANUARY - 24 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jan:  78/17


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Jan             23 Jan             24 Jan
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              78/17              78/17

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 21 January. AR2798 
(S17E32) appears to be decaying. AR2797 (S19E23) appears stable. 
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low over the next 
three UT days, 22 to 24 January. The westward CME first observed 
in Stereo A images on 20 January is not expected to be geoeffective. 
On 21 January, the solar wind speed was below 350 km/s. The total 
IMF (Bt) peaked at 4 nT and the Bz range was +/-2 nT. The solar 
wind speed is expected to be near nominal levels on 22 to 24 
January. The solar wind speed may become mildly elevated late 
on 24 January due to coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 21 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11110001
      Cocos Island         1   11110000
      Darwin               2   11110101
      Townsville           2   11110111
      Learmonth            2   11120101
      Alice Springs        0   00010001
      Gingin               1   11010001
      Canberra             1   01010001
      Hobart               2   12110001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     0   01000001
      Casey                7   34220101
      Mawson               7   22120214

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   0021 2211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
23 Jan     7    Quiet
24 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 21 January. Quiet to active levels were observed 
in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic activity is expected 
to be mostly quiet. Conditions may become mildly disturbed late 
on 24 January due to coronal hole effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: On UT day 21 January, MUFs were mostly near predicted 
monthly values with some periods of moderate depressions. MUFs 
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT 
days 22 to 24 January.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Jan     0

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      11
Jan      9
Feb      11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Jan     0    Near predicted monthly values
23 Jan     0    Near predicted monthly values
24 Jan     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 21 January, MUFs in the Australian region 
were near predicted monthly levels with moderate night time depressions 
at Darwin and Townsville. Sporadic E was observed, strong at 
times. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be near 
predicted monthly values on 22 to 24 January. Sporadic E occurrences 
are likely.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jan
Speed: 339 km/sec  Density:    9.9 p/cc  Temp:    38700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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