[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 January 21 issued 2330 UT on 17 Jan 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 18 10:30:10 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JANUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JANUARY - 20 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jan:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Jan             19 Jan             20 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    77/16              77/16              77/16

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 17 January and 
it is expected to remain very low over the next three UT days, 
18 to 20 January. There are two numbered sunspot regions on the 
visible disk (2796 at S21W27 and 2797 at S23E77 at 23:00UT/17 
January). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph images. On UT day 17 January the solar wind speed 
varied from 280 km/s to 310 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) varied in 
the range 1 to 5 nT, the north-south component of IMF (Bz) varied 
between +1 nT and -4 nT, and the solar wind particle density 
between 3 and 12 ppcc. The solar wind parameters are expected 
to strengthen during UT day 18 January and then stay moderately 
enhanced on UT days 19 and 20 January.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 17 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11000001
      Cocos Island         0   01000000
      Darwin               1   11000002
      Townsville           2   22000011
      Alice Springs        1   11000001
      Gingin               0   01000000
      Canberra             0   01000001
      Hobart               1   11000001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                4   32211001
      Mawson               9   24301004

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   1100 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Jan    10    Quiet to active
19 Jan    12    Quiet to active
20 Jan    12    Quiet to active

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
regions and mostly quiet to unsettled conditions in the Antarctic 
regions on UT day 17 January. Global geomagnetic activity is 
expected to be at quiet to active levels on UT days 18 to 20 
January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
19 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
20 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: On UT day 17 January, MUFs were mostly near predicted 
monthly values with periods of minor to mild depressions. MUFs 
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT 
days 18 to 20 January with the possibility of minor to mild depressions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Jan    -2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      11
Jan      9
Feb      11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Jan    -5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
19 Jan   -10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
20 Jan    -8    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: On UT day 17 January, MUFs in the Australian region 
were mostly near predicted monthly values with periods of minor 
to mild depressions. Sporadic Es were observed at several Australian 
sites. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly 
near predicted monthly values on UT days 18 to 20 January with 
the possibility of minor to mild depressions. Sporadic E occurrences 
are expected to continue.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.4E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jan
Speed: 312 km/sec  Density:    5.9 p/cc  Temp:    27000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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