[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 January 21 issued 2330 UT on 15 Jan 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 16 10:30:08 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JANUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JANUARY - 18 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jan:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Jan             17 Jan             18 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 15 January. Solar 
activity is expected to remain very low over the next three UT 
days, 16 to 18 January. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed 
in the available coronagraph images. On UT day 15 January the 
solar wind speed varied from 290 km/s to 320 km/s, the total 
IMF (Bt) varied in the range 3 to 5 nT, the north-south component 
of IMF (Bz) varied between +3 nT and -4 nT, and the solar wind 
particle density between 2 and 16 ppcc. The solar wind parameters 
are expected to remain mostly at nominal values on UT days 16. 
Minor to moderate enhancements in these parameters may be observed 
on UT day 17 and 18 January due to coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 15 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   10000211
      Cocos Island         1   11000110
      Darwin               2   01000211
      Townsville           3   21100211
      Learmonth            3   1-------
      Alice Springs        2   00000212
      Gingin               1   10000210
      Canberra             1   10000110
      Hobart               1   10000110    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000110
      Casey                5   22111221
      Mawson               4   31000221

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jan : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1   0000 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Jan     5    Quiet
17 Jan     8    Quiet to unsettled, some active periods possible
18 Jan     8    Quiet to unsettled, some active periods possible

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
and the Antarctic regions on UT day 15 January. The global geomagnetic 
activity is expected to be at quiet levels on UT day 16 January 
and quiet to unsettled levels with the possibility of some active 
periods on 17 and 18 January.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
18 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: On UT day 15 January, MUFs were mostly near predicted 
monthly values with periods of minor to mild depressions. MUFs 
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT 
days 16 to 18 January with the possibility of minor to mild depressions.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Jan   -10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      11
Jan      9
Feb      11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Jan    -5    Near predicted monthly values
17 Jan    -8    Near predicted monthly values
18 Jan    -8    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 15 January, MUFs in the Australian region 
were mostly near predicted monthly values with periods of minor 
to mild depressions. Sporadic Es were observed at several Australian 
sites. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly 
near predicted monthly values on UT days 16 to 18 January with 
the possibility of minor to mild depressions. Sporadic E occurrences 
are expected to continue.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.1E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jan
Speed: 361 km/sec  Density:    7.9 p/cc  Temp:    35600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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