[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 January 21 issued 2330 UT on 09 Jan 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 10 10:30:07 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JANUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JANUARY - 12 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jan:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Jan             11 Jan             12 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 09 January. There 
are currently no active regions on the visible disc. Solar activity 
is expected to remain very low over the next three UT days, 10-12 
January. CMEs associated with the filament eruptions from the 
SW quadrant around 08/0248UT and 08/1318UT have been assessed 
as missing Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed 
in the available satellite images. Through UT day 09 January, 
the solar wind speed was near its background levels, under 380 
Km/s. The total IMF (Bt) was weak, around 5 nT and the north-south 
component of IMF (Bz) varied between +4 nT and -3 nT. Solar wind 
speed is expected to slightly enhance today, 10 January due to 
HSS from a positive polarity coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 09 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100001
      Cocos Island         0   01000000
      Darwin               1   11100000
      Townsville           1   01100011
      Learmonth            1   11110001
      Alice Springs        1   11100001
      Gingin               1   10100001
      Canberra             1   11100001
      Hobart               1   11100000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     0   01000000
      Casey               10   33432011
      Mawson               8   34111013

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1   0000 0011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Jan    12    Quiet to Unsettled with a chance of an isolated 
                active period.
11 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled
12 Jan     7    Mostly quiet.

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 09 January. Quiet to active levels were observed 
in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected 
to increase to unsettled levels with a chance of an isolated 
active period on 10-11 January due to coronal hole effects before 
returning to mostly quiet levels on 12 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
11 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
12 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions can be expected 
over 10-12 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Jan     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      11
Jan      9
Feb      11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Jan    10    Near predicted monthly values
11 Jan    10    Near predicted monthly values
12 Jan    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were near predicted monthly 
values on UT day 09 January. Strong sporadic Es were observed 
at several Australian sites. MUFs in the Australian region are 
expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values over the 
next three UT days, 10-12 January. Sporadic E occurrences are 
expected to continue.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jan
Speed: 379 km/sec  Density:    4.3 p/cc  Temp:    67400 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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