[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 January 21 issued 2330 UT on 07 Jan 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 8 10:30:07 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 JANUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JANUARY - 10 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jan: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 07 January and
expected to continue at very low levels for the next 3 UT days,
08 to 10 January. There are no active regions on the visible
disc and no Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available
images. Through UT day 06 January, the solar wind speed gradually
decreased from 510 km/s to 420 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) varied
from 1 to 4 nT, while the north-south component of IMF (Bz) varied
in the range +3/-3 nT during this time. Solar wind parameters
are expected to show gradual weakening over the next two UT days,
08 to 09 January and then show some strengthening from 10 January
due to a coronal hole effect.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 22211112
Cocos Island 3 12110012
Darwin 3 12110012
Townsville 5 22211122
Learmonth 5 22221112
Alice Springs 4 22210012
Gingin 5 22111122
Canberra 3 1221011-
Hobart 6 23211112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jan :
Macquarie Island 2 12110001
Casey 16 44432123
Mawson 21 33321246
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 3332 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jan 5 Quiet
09 Jan 5 Quiet
10 Jan 8 Mostly quiet to unsettled.
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels in the Australian
regions and quiet to active levels in the Antarctic regions on
UT day 07 January. Global geomagnetic activity may be expected
to stay mostly at quiet levels on UT day 08 and 09 January. Global
geomagnetic activity is expected to rise to unsettled levels
with a small possibility of isolated active periods on UT day
10 January due to the effect of high speed solar wind stream
from a coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Through UT day 07 January, MUFs were mostly near predicted
monthly values with some periods of minor to moderate depressions
as well as minor enhancements. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values for the next three UT days, 08 to 10 January.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jan 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 11
Jan 9
Feb 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jan 8 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jan 8 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jan 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Through UT day 07 January, MUFs in the Australian region
were mostly near predicted monthly values with some periods of
minor to moderate depressions as well as minor enhancements.
MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be near predicted
monthly values for the next three UT days, 08 to 10 January.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jan
Speed: 529 km/sec Density: 6.5 p/cc Temp: 304000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list