[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 January 21 issued 2330 UT on 02 Jan 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 3 10:30:09 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JANUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JANUARY - 05 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jan:  82/23


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Jan             04 Jan             05 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              78/17

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 02 January. AR2794 
(S19W83) is now spotless and AR2795 (S20W61) is unremarkable. 
Slow filament eruptions occurred near S46W23 between 01/2020 
UT to 02/0950 UT with the ejecta visible in STEREO A, some of 
which appears Earth directed. The solar wind speed range was 
310 to 360 km/s with a peak total IMF of 4 nT and a north-south 
IMF (Bz) range of +3/-2 nT. Solar activity is expected to be 
very low, 03 to 05 January. Small, isolated coronal holes are 
likely to elevate the solar wind on 03 January and 05 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 02 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11000111
      Cocos Island         0   10000000
      Darwin               1   11000101
      Townsville           2   01000112
      Learmonth            2   11100111
      Alice Springs        1   11000101
      Gingin               2   11001111
      Canberra             1   01100111
      Hobart               1   11000111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     0   10000000
      Casey                8   33311211
      Mawson               4   22011212

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   0010 0101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
04 Jan     7    Quiet
05 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 02 January. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed 
in the Antarctic region. Quiet global geomagnetic conditions 
are expected 03 to 05 January with some unsettled periods due 
to coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions can be expected 
over 03 to 05 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Jan     2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      11
Jan      9
Feb      11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Jan     5    Near predicted monthly values
04 Jan     5    Near predicted monthly values
05 Jan     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were near predicted monthly 
values on UT day 02 January. Depressions were observed from early 
evening through the night at most sites. Strong sporadic E was 
observed mostly at mid-latitude locations. MUFs in the Australian 
region are expected to be near predicted monthly values, 03 to 
05 January. Sporadic E occurrences are expected to continue.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jan
Speed: 353 km/sec  Density:    3.8 p/cc  Temp:    50000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.




More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list